MA452 - Probability and Statistics II (Spring 2008)

General Information:

Instructor: Dr. Laura McSweeney (lmcsweeney [at ] mail.fairfield.edu)

Meeting Times: Wednesdays 6:30 – 9pm, Room BNW Gr-22

Text: Miller and Miller’s John E. Freund’s Mathematical Statistics, 7^th Edition

Office Hours: Mon, Wed, Thurs 11- noon, Wednesday 5– 6pm and by appt

in Bannow 111. (203)254-4000 x2194

Course Web site: http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/lmcsweeney/MA452.htm

Please purchase a binder for the course since you will get many handouts this semester. I recommend that you bring a TI-83 Graphing calculator to each class. This calculator has the statistical functions that we will use. We may also use Excel for some exploratory data analysis.

Class will not be held on March 5, 2008 due to Spring Break. On February 20th, 2008 we will meet at the library. More details will follow. The last day of class is April 30, 2008 with the final on Wed. May 7^th.

Course Schedule

USA Today Polls

Sample Journal Articles

Portfolio Assignment

regressionexamples.doc

correlationex.pdf

exploringlinearregall.xls

MA452chapter14snakeex.doc

Course Description:

This follow-up course will emphasize the development of basic statistical tools covered in Chapters 7, 8 and 10 – 14 in the text. There will be an emphasis on proofs as well as applications. Topics to be covered include sampling distributions, some limit laws, estimation theory, hypothesis testing and as time permits, least-squares methods, correlation and regression.

Topics to be covered:

Chapter 7: Transformation of Random Variables and Sum of Random Variables

Chapter 8: Sampling Distributions (Central Limit Theorem, t-distribution, c² distribution, F-distribution)

Chapter 10: Estimation Theory (unbiased estimators, MVUE estimators, consistent estimators, robust estimators, method of moments, and the method of maximum likelihood estimation)

Chapter 11: Confidence Intervals (for mean, difference in means, proportions difference in proportions, variances and ratio of variances)

Chapter 12: Hypothesis Testing Background (rejection region, type I and II errors, power)

Chapter 13: Hypothesis Testing (for mean, difference in means, proportions difference in proportions, variances, difference in k proportions, analysis of r x c tables, Goodness of Fit)

Chapter 14: Linear Regression (as time permits)

Note: Students planning on taking the first actuary exam should plan on taking the exams in the spring and should feel comfortable with all the material in Chapters 1 – 7. [Check out http://www.soa.org/ and http://www.beanactuary.com/ for more information about actuaries and the exam process.]

Participation: In order to master the concepts and material of this course, you will need to actively participate in class and do LOTS of examples outside of class. In addition, you are expected to attend all classes. Simply showing up to class is not enough, you must commit to doing work consistently outside of class as well participating in class. Obviously, you can not participate in class if you are not there!

Grading:

• In-Class Activities: These in-class group activities are designed to explore theories and concepts in more depth in a more relaxed setting and to get you involved. Completing the activities should help you with the homework and portfolio proofs. Activities will usually be collected and corrected, but not graded.

• Presentations: Each student will be responsible for presenting 2 or 3 proofs to the class during the semester. The problems will be assigned during the first class of the semester. All proofs should be thorough, yet concise, and with justifications given for each step. If the proof is given in the textbook, you will need to fill in all the details. It will take you several revisions to get the proof in a presentable, logical form. You can ask me for assistance and/or consult other text books or resources as needed (just give proper credit).

• Homework: Homework will be assigned and collected on a regular basis. Odd numbered problems will usually not be collected since the solutions are in the text books. Even numbered problems or problems sets will be collected at the beginning of class on the announced date. While I encourage you to work with each other and to ask me questions on the homework, all homework is to be written up individually. Therefore, the write-ups should be unique! All work should be done neatly. To earn full credit you must include more than just a final numerical result. A brief summary of steps taken and concluding statement should be included. Proofs should be written concisely and with justification for each step.

The grading scheme for homework and exams problems usually follows this rubric:

0 pts deduction - Perfect solution with explanations and/or justifications

1 pt deduction: Nearly perfect solution with a minor mistake (minor arithmetic mistake, typo, “Oops!” mistakes)

2 or 3 pts deduction: Some progress made toward correct solution, but there is a significant flaw in solution

5-10 pt deduction: No real progress made towards a correct solution or no effort made

• Portfolio: You will be required to turn in a statistics portfolio on the last day of class (Wed. Apr. 30).

a. You must find, read and turn in a critique of a journal article that contains statistical analysis. This example can be from a research journal from an area relating to your work or a different occupation that interests you (a report or study from a trade magazine/journal, medical journal, etc.) or from a statistics research journal. The library has hardcopies of The American Statistician, Statistical Science, as well as access to many more online journals (Journal of the American Statistical Association, Technometrics, etc.) using the JSTOR online database. [To access JSTOR, go to the Fairfield Library Homepage (http://library2.fairfield.edu/. Then select Research Tools & Resources. Then choose Article Index and Databases. Then select JSTOR from the list. You can Browse by discipline (Statistics or Math) and then pick a journal.] Others statistical journals include Journal of Statistical Education and Chance which you can access online using the link provided by following the Data Sets Link above (on my website).

You should submit a copy/print out of the article and write a brief summary (1 - 2 pages) that includes the type of statistical inference used and an explanation and source of the data used, a description of the analysis and conclusion. You should also critique the article for completeness and accurateness. (ex: Did they leave out any information? Did they use the right test and/or check the assumptions? Was their sample random? Were their figures/tables labeled? Were the figures/tables informative? How was the flow of the article? Did the article make sense? What did you learn? What was confusing? How was the flow of the article? etc).

We will be taking a “field trip” to the library for a demonstration on how to access mathematical and statistical resources in the library and online. You will be given time to search for your article at this time.

b. You must submit two examples of that you have come across in “everyday” life (say from a newspaper or magazine, etc.). For each example, give the source and describe the data. (Is it numerical/categorical? discrete/continuous? Ordinal/Nominal?) You should also critique the example for completeness and accurateness. (ex: Did they leave out any information? Did they use the right test and/or check the assumptions? Was their sample random? Were their figures/tables labeled? Were the figures/tables informative? How was the flow of the article? Did the article make sense? What did you learn? What was confusing? How was the flow of the article? etc). Describe the population, sample, any unknown parameters and statistics. I will give an example in class for you to refer to.

• Exams: There will be 1 in-class exam and one cumulative in-class final exam. Questions asked on the exams will NOT always be “just like” homework questions. I will be testing your understanding of the concepts learned in class and some questions will see if you can apply the skills learned to new situations. The exams are scheduled for Wed. March 26 and Wed. May 7th. Please make note of the dates of the exams and plan accordingly.

Final Grade Calculation:

Assignment	Total Points Possible	Percent of Final Grade
Homework [Total Hwk Pts/Total Possible]	100	25%
Midsemester exam	100	25%
Portfolio	50	12.5%
Final Exam	150	37.5%
Total Points Possible	400	100%

Final Course Grade Calculation: Your grade = Total Points Earned/400 *100%.

The usual grade ranges apply. (ex: 80 £ x < 83 = B-, 83 £ x < 87 = B, 87£ x < 90, B+)

Attendance Policy and Missed Work:

Attendance to each class is expected since we will be covering new material in each class (approximately a half to one chapter per class). Since the evening class is intensive, missing one class is equivalent to missing a week of a traditional class; and thus should be avoided. You are responsible for getting notes and assignments for any classes missed. You can also check the course website to see what topics you missed. Remember that lack of attendance is often an indicator of whether a student succeeds in a course or not.

Withdrawing from the Course:

The last day to drop the course is March 10th. Please see your Dean to fill out the appropriate forms.

Incompletes:

The policy for receiving an incomplete is outlined in the undergraduate catalog. An incomplete is issued when, due to an emergency situation, a student prearranges to complete some of the course requirement.

Academic Honesty:

All students are expected to follow the guidelines for academic honesty. (See pledge taken from the 2007-2008 Fairfield University Student Handbook, pg. 33-34). The undergraduate catalog outlines what constitutes academic dishonesty. In this course, acts of academic dishonesty may include using unauthorized “cheat sheets” on quizzes or exams; copying or obtaining questions and solutions from other students; sharing computer output or solutions, passing off someone else’s work as your own; programming inappropriate formulas/programs into calculators/PDA/cell phones (you can always check with me if you are unsure if a program you have is inappropriate); plagiarizing (copying or cut and pasting) other student’s or previously published work without proper citations; sharing computer output; etc. If you have questions about whether a particular situation is “dishonest” please ask!!!

Students caught breaking the academic honesty policy of this class will receive a grade of 0 on the assignment and/or an F in the course. The student will be reported to his/her Dean and the violation will be included in the student’s academic record.

Students with Disabilities:

Accommodations for students with documented disabilities will be made according to suggestions from the Office of Academic and Disability Support Services. Please contact Aimee Tiu, 203-254-4000 x2615, atiu [at] mail.fairfield.edu. Please inform me of these arrangements at the beginning of the semester.

General Words of Advice:

Feel free to consult with other students or come to office hours if you get stuck. If you find yourself falling behind see me as soon as possible. Please do not wait until right before exam time.

Accommodations for students with documented disabilities will be made according to suggestions from the Office of Student Support Services (located in Dolan 215, x2445)

For tips on how to have "Success in Math" (as well as your other classes) check out the web-site: http://euler.slu.edu/Dept/SuccessinMath.html

I hope you have a good semester! J