Example 1:

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm                 

(Monday March 22, 2004)

 

Results:  The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush at 48%, Senator John F. Kerry at 45%, and "some other candidate" at 4%.

 

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Methodology:     Rasmussen Reports collects data for its survey research using an automated polling methodology. Scott Rasmussen is a recognized pioneer in this field and has conducted automated surveys involving more than 4 million completed interviews since 1996. He has conducted more macro-sample studies than any other individual or company.

Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, we use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time. A person taking our survey tonight will hear the exact same thing that another respondent heard when we began this project in October 2001. Other benefits of the automated technique are quicker turnaround time for surveys and a capability for virtually unlimited expansion  

Survey Design

The first step in any survey project is to design the study. For the Rasmussen Index survey, we have a standard bank of 30 questions each night. Most automated surveys involve 10 to 20 questions.

Following survey design, the Rasmussen Reports' questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. We can ask open-ended questions and later transcribe the recorded responses if a project requires it.  We rarely do so.

Survey questions to be asked on a given night can be submitted as late as mid-afternoon on the day of the survey. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time. The calls are completed by our strategic partner, DialTek, a specialist in state-of-the-art data collection systems.

After the calls are completed, the raw data is transmitted to Rasmussen Reports. The data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.

The output and deliverables depend entirely upon the survey objective and client needs. Rasmussen Index findings and analysis are regularly posted on a password-protected web site. Typically, for custom research, a written overview highlighting survey findings is provided along with top-line responses to all questions and cross-tabs.

Example 2:

Source: www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm 

(March 22, 2004)

 

Which of the following applies to you: You have seen new political ads for George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, you have heard or read commentary about these ads, but you have not seen them, or you are not aware of new political ads for George W. Bush’s presidential campaign?

 

 

Have seen Bush’s campaign ads

Have heard/ read about ads

Not aware of Bush’s campaign ads

Seen ads/ heard or read about ads

No opinion

2004 Mar 5-7

31

39

29

1

*

 

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted March 5-7, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 570 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 892 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.  In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.