Class Questions for Readings, October 7th

Chelsea Reichert

Global Issues

Article 6: The Century Ahead

1. The article explains, “Estimates of the maximum possible life expectancy made throughout the twentieth century were, on average, surpassed within five years of being made…pension and health care systems have been funded on the basis of large underestimates of the number of elderly people in the future” (27). If estimates of life expectancy are wrong what effect could this have on health care/the elderly/our future?

2. The article explains that in Southern Europe (countries such as Italy and Spain) fertility rates have dropped. What kind of demographic disruption will these countries face?

Article 7: Africa’s Restless Youth

1. The article refers to a ‘youth bulge’ that is currently going on in Africa. What does this mean and how is it affecting Africa/African youth? (Refer to pg. 29)

2. The article explains that many of Africa’s youth are caught in a ‘Peter Pan’ scenario…”Try as they might, they cannot seem to become adults” (pg. 30). What are some factors blocking their emergence into adulthood?

3. What is the relation between the youth bulge in Africa and the violence in Africa? (pg. 31-34)

Common Wealth Ch. 7

Jessie Rogan

Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs: Global Population Dynamics

1. Global warming is a world wide issue that many speculate it will be difficult for us on a global level to work together to help fix it. The direction global warming will go in the future is uncertain because it depends heavily on human actions. Many believe that huge world wide actions will not be made until a serious event occurs and we are forced to.

Do you believe this is the case with global population rise as well? Do you think major world wide steps will be made in decreasing the population growth rate once many of us have experienced a significant negative effect from it?

2. Kuznets and Kremer (population optimists) support that rising population growth will create a larger number of geniuses at one time and will create more advances in society. “a population of one billion people will generate a lot more brilliant ideas and technical advance, than a population of one hundred million. If this is true, a larger population will experience faster growth than a smaller population.” (pg.161) In comparison, Sachs believes that continued and further rising population growth will create mass local conflict, violence and a break down of order in some countries. “There are too many young people for every adult. In particular there are too many potential young male fighters, aged fifteen to thirty for every more mature social elder and potential peacemaker. Young men, especially impoverished young men with out reliable employment, are fodder for the nightmarish dreams of political manipulators.” (pg.170)

What are the main factors that Kuznets and Kremer are not taking in to account when evaluating the affects of population growth in this example?

3. One factor that affects population growth and continued high fertility rates are the beliefs and cultural practices of the different nations. Actions and forces meant to help these nations in lowering their birthrates may be more difficult because of strict religious views, set ways of life, and age old values and practices whose values are ingrained in their lives. Which methods do you think would be most effective to try and create change and lower growth rate in some of these nations?

4. Can you describe what happens during the demographic transition (page 171) ?

5. This chart is half historical and half "projection." What does it suggest will happen to worldwide fertiliy trends (p. 165)?

Common Wealth Ch. 8

Caitlin McDonough

Chapter 8: Completing the Demographic Transition

-Sachs says that it is possible for Africa to reduce their Total Fertility Rate and achieve population stability. Name some of the 9 ways that Sachs suggests Africa can do to obtain this.

-What are some of the current factors going on in Africa that suggest that they have the ability to head down a developed path and reduce their TFR

-What are the dangers of the “youth bulge”, using Iraq, Iran and Pakistan as examples?

-Why does Sachs argue that a “baby bust” will not be as detrimental to the United States and developed countries in Europe, as people fear?

International Futures Ch. 5

Kayla Marth

International Futures Chapter 5

Kayla Marth

1) Hillebrand mentions that China is “growing old before growing rich” do you think that will be the case for the US in the future? (PG85)

2) Do you think that we should be worried about rising global population slowing economic development, promoting political instability and damaging the environment?

3) On page 91, Hillebrand mentions that when women have more access to education and to job opportunities, the average number of children they bear decreases sharply. Do you think that this will help the population growth in the US now that women have access to education and a lot of job opportunities

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Today's Country Study work: Class work on a part of Part 3: Analysis of Demogrpahic Changes. Start with your Exercise Two Analysis and then add several additional items.

Part 3: Social Changes

An Analysis of Demographic Changes

Bar graph of your country's population size changes. Can put both historic and projected.	Analysis (borrow from exercise 2)
Bar graph of your country's total fertility rate. Can put both historic and projected.	Analysis (borrow from exercise 2)
Bar graph of your country's life expectancy. Can put both historic and projected.	Analysis (borrow from exercise 2)
Bar graph of your country's population growth changes. Can put both historic and projected.	Analysis
	Analysis of age-sex pyramid structure.
	Analysis of a "youth bulge." Note what year it will be happening in. What does it imply for the stability of your country.
Any additiona country specidic chart/data needed? HIV/AIDS? Infant Mortality? Etc...