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Looking
at the graph to the left we notice that since 1960, the Population of
Sudan has been increasing steadily. In 1960, the population of
Sudan was at about 11.4 million people. The last census
information gathered from 2002, yielded the population of Sudan to
be up to about 32.8 million. This figure falls just shy of
tripling the number of people in Sudan in the year 1960. From
1960 to 2000, population has been growing in Sudan at an annual rate of
between two and three percent every five years. If the population
continues to increase at this rate, it is likely that population will
increase exponentially. |
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The
graph presented to the left is that of Sudan's projected population
throughout the 21st century. The country's population is expected
to continue to increase, but not as steadily. Just as in the
above graph, over time the population seems to triple. However,
the above graph measures population over a span of 42 years whereas the
graph to our left accounts for 100 years of time. Therefore,
population growth in the 21st century is not as great as it was in the
second half of the 20th century. We notice that most of the
growth during the 21st century is concentrated in the first fifty years
where the number of people in Sudan is growing at an annual rate of
between one and three percent every ten years for the first fifty
years. For the second half of the century population is still
growing, but the annual rate is decreasing to a rate that is just under
one percent. This information leads one to believe that
eventually sometime in the 2100s the number of people in Sudan will
level off and somewhere down the line the population may start to
decrease. |
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We
will now consider the measure of life expectancy. As shown from
the graph to the left, from 1960 to 2005, life expectancy for those
living in Sudan has been rising. In 1960, the average life
expectancy was 39.9 years of age whereas in 1965 that measure rose to
40.9 years of age. 1970 saw 42.9 years of age and the graph
continues in an upward linear fashion. |
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The
International Futures Model projects that the average life expectancy
will increase during the 21st century. One measure that seems
uncertain however is the dip in life expectancy in the year 2010 where
the average life expectancy yields 56.6 down from 27.5 in 2000.
What can we attribute this trend to? Historically, the
trend for life expectancy has been on the rise; therefore this drop in
2010 raises many questions. Is the IF model projecting some soft
of life threatening illness, catastrophy, or other variable that will
effect this measure. Given Sudan's history of long political
unrest and turmoil, it is not unlikely that by the time 2010 comes
around the age of the population will be lower than it had in years
past. The 1970s and the 1980s saw much brutality and death for
young adults and middle aged individuals. As 2010, it will be
time for these people to come of age, but unfortunately, not many of
them remain. However, regardless of the uncertain figures
projected for the beginning quarter of the 21st century, the remainder
of the century seems to exude great promise in terms of longevity.
It is apparent that by the year 2100, life expectancy in Sudan
will be as high as 86.1 years of age. |
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The
graph to the left measures Sudan's total fertility rate. Looking
back to 1962, the average woman had 6.7 children, replacing her
partner, herself, and still contributing to the population growth.
Over the next ten years the figure of 6.7 children remained
constant. In 1977 the tides changed and fertility rate began
descending on its downward spiral that continues all the way through to
2002 where it again begins to level out at 4.4 for a period of about
three years. |
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The
downward trend we observed in the above graph is likely to continue
through the 21st century. In the year 2060 it becomes prevalent
that the fertility rate is projected to fall below replacement.
The graph shows the fertility rate to be 1.8 from the years 2070
to 2100. With the assumption that new technologies will lead the
way for less manual labor and women may gain greater freedom and
independence leading to perhaps taking on things besides childbearing,
the IF projection seems to have a sounds stance. |
