Part IV: Economic Changes

What is the current State of Economy in Sudan?
In 2006, Oil production helped to sustain the current state of Sudan's economy to a growth rate of 10% from the prevous year.  35% of Sudan's GDP comes from Agricultural production which employs 80% of the workforce.  But, as we will have a look at below, seems to be fading away, which is sure to have severe consequences for the future state of economy in Sudan.  The difficult environmental conditions coupled with political turmoil in Darfur and among the North and South has allowed for some troubled times for Sudan's economy in the Agricultural sector.  The struggles within the Agricultural field have forced many people of Sudan to live in squalid conditions far below the line of poverty.  One of the main economic challenges of the somewhat stable economy of Sudan is the per capita output.  In 1997, IMF macroeconomic reforms were instituted in order to increase the per capita output.

Information gathered by the CIA World Factbook.

In January 2007, the Sudanese Pound was instituted.


Economic Facts:

-GDPPC: $2,400

-GDP (official exchange rate): 25.43 billion

-40% of the Population is below the poverty line

-Public debt accounts for 62.3% of GDP

-Inflation rate: 7.2%

-Unemployment rate: 18.7% (2002)

The information listed above is based on 2006 statistics from the CIA World Factbook.


Production by Sector and its Influence on Economy: A comparative look at Sudan and North Africa

For the sake of this analysis, we will ignore the information for World GDP

    Recently, Sudan's economy has been doing quite well.  Despite the withdrawal of the U.S. government and some European based companies, due to the conflict in Darfur, Sudan has been able to thrive.  Recently found oil and the sale of it to places like China has lifted the economy and is believed to continue to do so.  Economists predict that a growth of 13% will occur this year alone (Sanders, 1).  Widespread trade with China is occuring, China buys oil from Sudan and in turn, Sudan has brought many items from China, fueling their economy.  Some critics argue that this system will not last long and that as soon as the price of oil drops, Sudan will find themselves in crisis mode.  With this newfound wealth, Khartoum, Sudan's capital, is building and becoming a place of lavish vacations, big buildings, and ultimately a place for consumerism to thrive. Some Sudanese people recognize the disparities that are emerging from this way of life and fear that if the U.S. does not reappear to Sudan's economic, then their future may be troubled.

Currently, how does Sudan compare with the rest of the region of North Africa?  Sudan's economy is currently growing faster than the rest of the region of North Africa and is likely to continue to do so, but not for too long.  By 2030, either oil prices will drop or Sudan's oil reserves will run dry leaving Sudan in the dust economically in comparison to the rest of North Africa.  Economists predict that growth will persist for North Africa in the second half of the 21st century.  Sudan's GDP will increase slowly throughout the century but will fall far below the measures of GDP for North Africa leaving Sudan with an extremely weak economy and a large disparity amongst it and its' geographic region.


By the year 2050, Sudan's services sector will contribute to approximately 55% of the economy.  Energy and agriculture will decrease drastically.  In contrast, materials and manufactures are predicted to increase slowly from 2000 to 2050.  Looking at the bigger picture we notice that in North Africa we see that their services sector will likely increase from from 35.5 (2000) to 55% (2050).  Their agricultural dimension is thought to decrease as well, plummeting from about 20% down to about 2%.  North Africa will probably see increases in manufactures, and decreases in energy, just as is predicted for Sudan.  From the data, it seems as though Sudan is following the trend set forth by North Africa, but although many of the specific sectors that fluctuate are the same, the percentages of change vary greatly.

Looking at the graph above, we notice predictions of rapid growth within Sudan and North Africa.  Increased GDP may be the cause for and/or caused by consumerism which leads to a greater demand for goods and services, thereby increasing the services sector of the economy and decreasing other measures.  By 2050, Sudan seems to be struggling to keep up with the rest of the region.  Perhaps the services they are providing are no longer affordable for as many people or maybe the loss of agricultural revenues due to an increase in Sudan's production sector can account for the lag in GDP.  The demand for argiculture may still exist, forcing Sudan to spend funds on importing agricultural goods, depleting the amount of funding that circulates back through their economy leaving them in a struggle to keep up with the rest of North Africa.