In
mid-2005, Iran's population was estimated at 68 million people,
approximately one-third of which lived in rural settlements and
two-thirds in urban population centers. The main ethnic group in Iran
is Persian (60%). Iran's constitution declares Shia Islam as the
official religion of Iran. Education, health care and the role of
women are three issues of particular importance in the analysis of
Iranian society.
Education and Literacy:
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Iran’s
education system is established around a structure that includes five specific
cycles of education. They include pre-school, primary, middle, secondary and
post-secondary. The elementary basic level education is required under the
Iranian constitution but admission into post-secondary institutions is
dependent upon a student’s score on a nation-wide entrance exam. This only
allows for academically talented students to make it to this level of
education. Primary, secondary and post-secondary education is free except for
private institutions which are permitted to charge tuition.
In Iran,
the Ministry of Education and Training is in charge of all schools including
the training of teachers. This area of the social services sector of Iran’s economy
employs 42% of the total number of civil servants and receives 21% of the
national budget. There are 509 schools for disabled students, 3,586
kindergartens, 59,280 elementary schools, 15,580 intermediate schools, 4,515
secondary schools, 380 technical schools, 405 business studies and vocational
schools, 64 agricultural schools, 238 urban and 182 rural elementary school
teachers’ training colleges, seven vocational and professional teachers’ training
colleges and 19 institutes of technology. The Ministry of Education and
Training is the part of Iranian social structure that outlines and deals with
the cycles of education in the country.
The pre-school education cycle is a one-year program for
children when they are about five years old. In the program they are prepared
for primary schooling and from this stage, they continue to the primary
education cycle. This five year program is the equivalent of grades 1-5 and is
for children from ages 6-11. At the end of each grade, students must pass exams
to ensure their preparedness for the next grade level’s work. At the end of the
fifth grade, students take the nation-wide exam to determine whether or not
they are prepared to proceed to the next cycle. The next cycle is the middle or
guidance cycle which is grades 6-8 for children between 11 and 13 years old.
This program focuses more on general education and is free for residents of Iran. This
phase is also known as the guidance cycle because at this point, the strengths
and interests of the students are recognized. At this point, students make some
sort of determination about which path they are likely to take, whether it be
academic, technical or vocational. Another nation-wide test is administered to
determine whether or not students are prepared to enter the secondary cycle.
This next cycle is four years in length and represents the same grade coverage
that exists in American high schools. There are two main branches of the
secondary cycle: Academic/general and technical/vocational. The academic path
focuses on literature and culture, socio-economic, physics-mathematics, and
experimental sciences. The technical branch focuses on training students for
the labor market. At the end of each grade, students are evaluated to make sure
that they are keeping up with standards and are at the level to move to the
next grade. A new system is being discussed that would shorten the high school
cycle to three years, allowing students in the academic branch a year to prepare
for the KONKUR, the nation-wide entrance test to be admitted to post-graduate
programs. Other interesting aspects of the Iranian education system are that
English as a second language is introduced by grade 7. Also, the Ministry of
Education has jurisdiction over teacher training programs and has the
responsibility of providing textbooks for all pre-university courses.
Source: Education System in Iran
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Healthcare Issues in Iran:
Since the revolution that led to Iranian
independence in 1978-79, health care in the country has improved because it has
become a priority of the government. The constitution allows for basic health
care coverage and most people have access to subsidized prescription drugs.
Public clinics are located throughout the country and provide basic health care
at low costs. For more intensive care, Iran offers general and specialty
hospitals through the Ministry of Health. These facilities are usually located
in urban areas and in these large cities wealthy people take advantage of private
clinics and highly specialized hospitals that charge high fees. People in the
more rural areas of Iran
have less access to these facilities and therefore get by with the basic health
care provided at the public clinics. Although these hospitals and private
clinics do not exist in the rural villages, very reputable primary physicians
do work at the clinics in these areas and many efforts have been made by
government to sponsor a system that raises the level of health education in
these villages. Estimates early in the 2000’s show that there are between 8.5
and 11 physicians per 10,000 people and about 7 nurses and 11 hospital beds per
10,000 people. About 46% of physicians are women. With the improvement of
health care in Iran,
deaths as a result of communicable diseases have decreased while other diseases
such as cardiovascular disease and cancer are the most common causes of death
in more recent years. A major health problem in Iran that may be unique to its
location is the increasing prevalence of drug addiction due to trade within the
region and this led to an increase in HIV cases, two thirds of which were
attributed to drug use. Iran
is improving in terms of health care and has some work to do in the area but
overall, the country is succeeding in providing affordable and far-reaching
services to its population.
Source: Library of Congress Country Profile
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Gender Issues:
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Historically, Iranian society has practiced public
segregation of the sexes. Women were required to wear veils in public and in
traditional views, women were to be confined to the home where their job was to
manage the home and bear children. Men were to work in the public sphere and if
a family were to go against these norms, their reputation was diminished. In
the past, these views even permeated education as schools, from elementary
through secondary, were separate for males and females. As the upper and middle
classes strayed further from traditional religious life, the attitudes towards
the segregation of the sexes changed, especially in the capital city of Tehran. During the
Pahlavi government, norms were challenged and the goal was to eliminate the
veiling of women at functions and to facilitate more public interaction between
men and women. The government then conflicted with the religious clergy who
wanted to maintain traditional values. Before the revolution, women began to
see positive changes in the way they were treated and in 1963 they were given
the right to vote. They participated in the revolution and even became active
members of demonstrations in the streets of major cities. Following the
revolution, the religious conservatives were of great political influence and
they managed to implement new laws restricting women and their participation in
public life.
In recent data from 2005, Iran has an estimated 34.9 million
women in its population. Of that population, 29% are 15 years old or younger,
57% are between the ages of 15 and 49 and 14% are over the age of 50. The total
fertility rate is 2.5 births per woman. 74% of married Iranian women are using
contraception, while 56% use modern methods. 90% of births are attended by a
skilled professional. Also, there are 76 deaths per 100,000 births in Iran. As shown
in the charts to follow, women are beginning to match men in terms of
population size, education and literacy.
In terms of treatment, women are suffering under the
policies that are still in effect following the revolution and the rule of
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. These policies that are still in effect include
the dress code or the hejab in all public places. Also, women are banned from
pursuing post-secondary education in 91 or 169 study programs and are taught in
separate classrooms from men. Women may only participate in the workforce with
their husband’s permission and many occupations are simply off limits to women.
Girls can be married at 9 years old (previously 18 years of age) and polygamy
is legal. Women must obtain permission from their husbands to travel or get a
passport. Women have begun to stand up for their rights and continuously push
the limits of their restrictions. Women may have created enough of a voice by
the upset election of the Iranian President Mohammed Khatami in 1997. Khatami
was seen as being a moderate choice and it was understood by the public that he
would fight for the rights of women. This public perception was challenged when
President Khatami did not sign the United Nations Convention on the Elimination
of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) which was the most
important international agreement regarding the rights of women. In recent
years there has been little change for the women of Iran as the spiritual and political
leadership of the country fails to press the issues to the forefront of
discussion. Khatami remained President until 2005 when he was succeeded by
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The current President also fails to make change in the
roles of women and the dated, discriminatory policies are still in effect. Although
the statistics paint a nice picture of life for women in Iran, the struggle continues and Iran continues
to fail in gender equality.
Sources:
Gender Issues in Policy
Women of Our World 2005
Women's History in Iran
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Women following the dress code in Iran, hejab
Current Iranian President, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad Source: Critical Blog
Source: Personal Blog |
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As shown in the bar chart below,
the most recent figures from the IF database show that Iran has a significantly lower GDP (gross
domestic product) per capita than the Middle East
as a collective region and the World as a whole. As the projected years go by, Iran slowly
approaches the GDP per capita of the World and surpasses it around the year
2050. Around the year 2060, Iran
surpasses the GDP per capita of the Middle East
but then remains less through the year 2100. The Middle East GDP per capita may
remain higher than Iran’s
even at the end of the projected years because this measure would also include
a lot of the other oil rich countries in the region. This figure may be
difficult to match because of the wealth of the region.
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The first pie chart shows production
by sector in the Middle East in the year 2000.
The breakdown of production in the Middle East
is much more evenly distributed than in the World pie chart. Energy accounts
for 31% of production while services make up 34.5% of production. This
difference from the World picture has a lot to do with the concentration of oil
production in the region. This particular part of the world bases much of its
income and success on the abundance of oil that is naturally a part of the
environment. Agriculture makes up much less of the total
production in the Middle East because, most
likely, these countries located in the region import their crops. Other areas
have better resources to produce crops and generate more innovative
technologies. This is a clear example of the law of comparative advantage that
suggests that countries will produce what they have the best ability to
produce. Other countries that have a different competence would focus their
production on those strengths and the two countries would ultimately trade
products to fill the remaining gaps in necessities.
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To examine these differences even
closer, the next chart shows the production breakdown in 2000 only within the
country of Iran.
Energy accounts for 34% of all production in Iran
which is very similar to the distribution of production in the Middle East as a whole. Services are almost just as
important an industry as energy in Iran, accounting for 32.9% of
production. The pie chart for Iran
in 2000 is actually almost identical to that of the Middle
East picture. This similarity is also represented in the original
bar graph because throughout the
projection continuing until 2100, the Middle East and Iran had very similar outlooks in
terms of GDP per capita. The affairs that take place in Iran seem to be
a good depiction of the region as a whole. This could be due to the fact that
the Middle East as a region is an area made up of states that are grouped for
the similarities more than there political boundaries. As other regions are
compiled in terms of dividing territory, the Middle East
has more to do with religious, economic and social connections between the
countries involved. This distinction is clear in the differentiation between
the World production pie chart and the charts of the Middle East and Iran as an
individual country.
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| The next pie chart, depicting the Middle East in the year 2025, displays a noticeable
change. In this projection, services account for 45.7%
of production; energy accounts for only 23% of production and manufactures
increases a bit to 20.5% of total production. These changes are significant
because these differences point to a fundamental breakaway from what had
previously set the Middle East apart. From the
year 2000 to 2025, the energy industry in the Middle East
dropped from 31% to 23%. This change could suggest that the region has further
diversified its production and has begun to spread its
resources throughout a variety of endeavors. This change could be a reaction to
an increased need for a more varied economy. Although some differences are
noticeable in this chart, the low production in the agricultural sector in the Middle East remains the same. |
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In Iran
in 2025, the sectors of production look very similar to the Middle
East chart. This observation again points to the impact of Iran in the total data for the Middle
East. This region is grouped based on the countries’ similar
industries and competencies and this describes the similar pictures of Middle Eastern
and Iranian production patterns. Even over time, the similarities continue to
hold true. As time goes by, these two pictures will continue to look the same
based on the collective changes that likely impact all of the countries that
are part of the Middle East similarly.
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In the Middle
East, 2050 will be characterized by a drastic decrease in energy
as a dominant industry and the dramatic increase in both the services and
manufacturing industries. This picture of Middle Eastern production begins to
look very similar to the World’s projected distribution in 2050. Instead of
being dominated by energy production, the Middle East
starts to align itself with the production sectors of the World. This change
cannot be explained by a single factor and is most likely due to a combination
of significant social and economic factors. Perhaps the oil industry in the Middle East is reduced in size or maybe, with the
increased demand for more environmentally friendly automobiles and methods of
transportation, oil production becomes increasingly obsolete. Obviously these
predictions are quite radical in terms of today’s insatiable need for oil, but
in the future these desires may be redirected, resulting in the dramatic shift
in Middle Eastern production.
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As shown in the final chart, Iran continues to resemble the Middle
East as a whole even in the year 2050. Iran faces the same changes that
the region encounters and also begins to look more like the World production
pie chart also. In 2050, International Futures predicts that 59.7% of the total
production in Iran
will be accounted for in the services industry. The model predicts that 22.8%
of total production will be from the manufactures industry
and only 8.9% will be from the energy industry. This division is a dramatic change
from the original image of Iran’s
production in 2000 and as with the Middle East
as a whole, this movement towards the rest of the world’s production pattern is
a result of several different factors working together to change the face of
the Iranian economy.
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To better understand the analysis
of Iran and its relation to
the Middle East as a region, a brief picture of Iran’s economic and social
strengths and challenges is critical. According to the World Bank, Iran’s
population of 65.5 million people is comprised of young, vibrant people that
are ready and willing to seek a better future for themselves and their
families. Education is a very substantial and solid institution in Iran and after
a plan that was implemented 15 years ago, the government focused its attention
on developing more productive citizens. Their focus was to expand Iran’s competencies beyond oil production and
devote more education and awareness to the other natural resources that Iran has to
offer. Gender disparities are almost completely eliminated in Iran and the
poorest citizens of the country are able to gain access to a thorough
education. Also, youth literacy rates increased from an already high rate of
86% to 94% in a very short period of time.
In
terms of health, Iran
has devoted a lot of time and energy to create a comprehensive coverage plan to
better serve the Iranian people. The government has been very dedicated to
ensure that all citizens of the country have the opportunity to enjoy primary
health care. Iran
has also created programs to help people with job placement, elderly care and
other social services.
The
Iranian economy faces a number of significant challenges in the coming years.
First, Iran
suffers from an unemployment problem because of the high numbers of people that
are actively seeking employment and the limited number of jobs available.
According to the World Bank, “the challenge is to ensure high and sustainable
economic growth with strong employment creation, driven by a broader
participation of the private sector in the economy, particularly in non-oil and
export sectors.” This prediction strongly relates to the pie charts above
because as time goes by, International Futures predicts that Iran will shift
its production leader from oil based industries to a broader scope of potential
successes. The World Bank also notes that with an increase in female
participation in the economy and a greater emphasis on education and skill
development, the shift will result in more of a “knowledge economy” as opposed
to an oil dominated system.
Iran’s
ever-increasing demand for employment is an ongoing reaction to high population
growth rates in the 1980’s. Even though population growth rate and fertility
rates are no longer high in Iran,
the labor force continues to grow at a rate of nearly 4% because of the
population burst in the 1980’s. This unemployment crisis in Iran is likely
to only get worse as the economy is growing but not rapidly enough to support
the high demand for jobs. Iran
continues to be successful economically but with the shift from oil to more far
reaching jobs, the future is uncertain for the continued growth of the country.
In
the bigger picture of the Middle East as a whole, Iran’s challenges are common
throughout the area. According to the World Bank, the economic decisions that
are made now within these countries will determine the future success of their
economies. Currently, high oil prices are creating a surplus for oil producing
countries and if these funds are properly allocated, the economies will benefit
from this productivity for years to come. If these funds are used
inappropriately, when oil prices decrease and industry demands change, these
countries could struggle with the challenges that ensue. Long-term, Middle
Eastern countries’ successes and prosperity will depend, largely, on the
implementation of plans to diversify economic sectors. If these countries can
move away from oil-sectors in an efficient and progressive way, the Middle East will have a strong future. The employment
crisis is being felt across many other Middle Eastern countries, not only in
Iran and the constant tension that is felt from the Iraqi conflict will also be
a determining factor in the future of the region.
Part 5: Prospects
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Iran's Nuclear Facility at Natanz
Source: MSNBC |
Iran’s biggest problem for the future is its unclear
nuclear program and the consequences that the program will create for Iran’s
relationships internationally. The current program is lead by the President and
he argues that Iran’s
nuclear agenda only includes peaceful research that may allow for a complete
nuclear fuel cycle that would create more efficient energy sources. The
country’s focus is on uranium enrichment and also a plutonium endeavor, both of
which could also be used towards developing weapons of mass destruction. This
prospect is of particular concern to countries around the world and also under
scrutiny is Iran’s
legality in its research. Iran
is a signer of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 and although the
country has been in compliance with policies to date, there is some suspicion
that peaceful research may be masking more harmful plans. The research that Iran is
developing currently could be used peacefully but equal potential exists for
the creation of nuclear weapons.
Very recently, a report was
released from a United States Intelligence Agency that stated that Iran had halted
its nuclear program in 2003 and had not yet restarted its work. The report went
against the claims that President Bush had been making about the potential
threat that Iran posed for
the United States
and the World. This report reminds the World of the flawed report that revealed
inside information about alleged weapons of mass destruction within Iraq that may have led to the war against Iraq on behalf of the United States. Regardless of
whether or no the Iranian government is being truthful in its intentions with
its nuclear program, the fact remains that Iran has a very sophisticated
nuclear development program that should be watched.
Based on the total analysis
of Iran
as an economy, a society and a member of the World, I am not optimistic about
its future. The nuclear threat that has the World on edge will create
monumental issues for Iran’s
future and may even push tensions to the breaking point with the United States.
Also, the treatment of minority groups within the borders of Iran will most
likely result in resentment, government hatred and over time, maybe even
action. Iran is a country
that is so concerned with tradition that it is losing sight of the future of
the country and the people that call Iran home. I think that if major
changes do not occur within the next 5 to 10 years, Iran is facing a very challenging
future.
Sources: Global Security
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