Brazil: A Country Study
By: Colleen Davidson


PART I: History and Geography

 
 



Geography

FAST FACTS: (CIA Factbook)

General Ethnic Groups
: Portuguese, Italian, German, Spanish, Japanese, Arab, African, and indigenous people.

National Religion
: Roman Catholic.

Language:
Portuguese.
Education: Literacy--81% of adult population.

Health:
Infant mortality rate--27.5/1,000. Life expectancy--71.3 yrs

Climate:  Mostly tropical, but temparate in the South

Geographic Coordinates:
10 00 S, 55 00 W

Elevation Extremes:
lowest point:  Atlantic Ocean 0 m
highest point: Pico da Neblina 3,014 m


Percent Continent Area:  47% Continent area

Maritime Claims:
Exclusive economic zone 322 kilometers (200 nautical miles)

    Brazil is a country known for its large population, beautiful rainforests, and Pele, but this 8,511,965 sq km of land contains a rich history and an interesting future.  It is South America’s largest nation both in population; (186,112,794 people) as well as geographically, sharing a border with every nation on the continent (with the exception of Chile and Ecuador). Brazil has taken the lead economically as well; in recent years it has begun employing the 67.9% (CIA World Factbook) of its population within working age to its advantage work the multitude of natural resources.  The country does not find economic success in agricultural exports, with only 6.96% arable land and 0.9% permanent crops, rather it is their natural resources extracted mainly from the ground that contribute to the nation’s economic situation. These resources include “bauxite, gold, iron ore, manganese, nickel, phosphates, platinum, tin, uranium, petroleum, hydropower, timber” (CIA World Factbook). 

    The terrain is not condusive for much agricultural endeavors with the dense forests and flat to rolling lowlands that characterize the northern regions including Amazon Basin; to the semiarid along northeast coast; mountains, hills, and rolling plains in the southwest, including Mato Grosso; around the narrow coastal belt. (CIA Factbook).  The climate of the region is mostly tropical or semitropical with a temperate zone that can be found in the south.

     The nation has a diverse forest region and the deforestation in Amazon Basin poses a serious threat to the environmental harmony of Brazil.  It destroys the habitat and endangers a multitude of plant and animal species indigenous to the area.  There is also a lucrative illegal wildlife trade where poachers run wild destroying ecosystem after ecosystem.  The large cities of  Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, degrade the land with air and water polution due to overcrowding in the city areas.  Brazil is also home to ten of world's twenty greatest rivers, the greatest being the Amazon which is the world's largest in volume and one of world's longest (6,762 kilometers, 3,615 kilometers are in Brazil) (Library of Congress Country Study)
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History
FAST FACTS: (CIA World Factbook)

Founder:
Pedro Alvares Cabral, Portuguese

1st President: 
Manuel da Fonseca

Independence:
September 7, 1822
From Portugal

National Holiday: 
Independence Day, 7 September

Constitution: Promulgated October 5, 1988

Political Parties: 19: Top 4: Workers' Party (PT), Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB),

Government Type: Brazil
is a federal republic with 26 states and 1 federal district

Capital:  Brasilia

Suffrage:  voluntary between 16 and 18 years of age and over 70; compulsory over 18 and under 70 years of age; note - military conscripts do not vote







Explanation of Flag

Officially adopted on November 19, 1889 Brazil's current flag was inspired by the flag of the former Brazilian Empire as seen below.  On the imperial flag, the green represented the Bragança Royal Family of Pedro I, the first Emperor of Brazil, and the yellow represents the Hapsburg Imperial Family of Leopoldina, Pedro's wife. The center of the old imperial flag bore the Imperial Coat of Arms.

On the modern republican flag, the coat of arms has been replaced by the blue circle, which depicts the sky over Rio de Janerio on the morning of the day the Republic of Brazil was declared.

                                   Imperial Flag 

                    The Empire Flag, September 18, 1822 - November 15, 1889


Legal System:  Based on Roman Codes, and has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction

Executive Branch: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Steel worker from one of the poorest regions of Brazil  Vice President Jose Alencar.  President serves as both chief of state as well as  head of the government



Elections:  President and Vice President will run on and be elected on the same ticket by popular vote for four-year terms. The election is held on the 6th of October.


Legislative Branch: 
bicameral National Congress  consists of the Federal Senate (81 seats; three members from each state and federal district elected according to the principle of majority to serve eight-year terms; one-third elected after a four-year period, two-thirds elected after the next four-year period) and the Chamber of Deputies (513 seats; members are elected by proportional representation to serve four-year terms)


Judicial Branch:
Supreme Federal Tribunal (11 ministers are appointed for life by the president and confirmed by the Senate) , although, appointed "for life," judges, like all federal employees, have a mandatory retirement age of 70


Brazil was founded in 1500 by the Portuguese explorer Pedro Alvares Cabral and was used as a conventional colonial source for resources such as lumber for ship building, sugar cane, silver and diamonds.  Millions of native people were enslaved and forced into hard labor as well as a vast number of African slaves that were brought in by Portugal to increase  their gains from the land.  This colony was ruled from Lisbon until 1808, when Dom Joao VI and the rest of the Portuguese royal family were forced to flee from the advancing Napoleonic army.  It was because of the French aggression that the king established his seatof government in Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) until 1821 when Dom Joao VI felt it was safe to return to Portugal. His son declared Brazil's independence from Portugal on September 7, 1822, he proceeded to rule as emperor under the title of Dom Pedro I.   He was succeeded by his son, Dom Pedro II who was responsible for the nation from 1831 to 1889.  While he was in Europe the Regent Princess Isabel abolished slavery in 1888 much to the emperor's dismay.  This was only the beginning of his worries though,  the discontent Brazilian population organized a coup in 1889 under Deodoro Manuel da Fonseca, Marshal of the Army and a federal republic was established. 
     
                                

    Pedro Alvares Cabral             Dom Joao VI                  Manuel da Fonseca

Unfortunately, da Fonseca was a far greater military leader than a politcal one and under his rule a president was set of unbalance and confusion.  From 1889 to 1930, the government functioned as a constitutional democracy, although this period was one of economic and politcal instability characterized by currupt government officials.  The export orientation of the economy shaped Brazil's society. Even the name "Brazil," suggests images of commerce and the pursuit of wealth.  Brazil's economy was carried heavily on the backs of exploitation of cheap labor, first as slaves, then as wage-earners. Although they were a free republic the nation functioned mainly as a colony until the 1930's.  The Brazilian people were once agian disatisfied with their political situation which lead the way for the overthrow that was to come.  


Getulio Vargas

Yet another military coup was in the works.  The coup took  placed in 1930  when Getulio Vargas, a charsimatic civilian lead the overthrow.  Vargas changed the govermental structure to a dictatorship and remained as dictator until 1945.  During that time Brazil experienced an industrial boom and became focused on
import-substitution industrialization which "favors the export of industrial goods over primary products and foreign-exchange considerations".  This also marked a flight to the cities as many farmers left their land to become steel workers in the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte.  As another coup loomed in the future Vargas was forced to hold elections which he won in 1950, but 4 years later with the threat of yet another coup on the rise he committed suicide rather than giving up the governmental seat.

The 1950's ushered in a new economic focus with the use of the internal combustion engine and the fast growing petroleum industry so presidents, Café Filho, Carlos Luz, Nereu Ramos, Juscelino Kubitschek, and Janio Quadros all put a great deal of attention into the transportation industry.  By the the 1970s, Brazil had the world's third largest commercial air fleet behind only the United States and the Soviet Union.   The 1980's saw a different economic interest for the nation and using its newly developed mechanization of agriculture  it became the world's 2nd highest producer of food. 

Part II:  Internal Inequality

FAST FACTS: (CIA Factbook)

Age Structure:
0-14 yrs:
26.1%
15-64 yrs:
67.9% 
65+ yrs:
6%


Median Age:

total:
27.81 years
male: 27.06 years


Ethnic groups:

White: 
53.7%
Mulatto: 38.5%
Black:  6.2%
Other (includes Japanese, Arab, Amerindian): 0.9%
Unspecified:  0.7%


Relgions:
Roman
Catholic:
73.6%
Protestant:  15.4%
Spriritualist:  1.3%
Bantu/voodoo:  0.3%
other 1.8%
Unspecified:  0.2%
None:  7.4%


Labor Force:
89 million people


Labor Force by Occupation:
Agriculture:
20%
Industry: 14%
Services: 66%


Unemployment Rate: 
11.5%


Population Below Poverty Line: 
22%


Agriculture Products: 
coffee, soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, sugarcane, cocoa, citrus; beef



Coffee is Brazil's cheif agricultural export

Industrial Products: 
textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment


GDP: Purchasing Power Parity:
$1.492 trillion


 
Brazilian Currency

GDP: Real Growth Rate:
5.1%


GDP: Per Capita Purchasing Power Parity:
$8,100


GDP:  Composition by Sector:
Agriculture:
10.1%
Industry: 38.6%
Services: 51.3%


Household Income or Percentage by Consumption Share:
Lowest 10%:  0.7%

Highest
10%: 48%


Indigenous Population:
230 tribes that speak more than ninety languages and 300 dialects







The Amerindians stake most of their land claims along the Amazon River and despite popular belief are not a nomadic people.  They prefer setting up matriacrhal communities.
Brazil is an enormous nation with a variety of different cultures living simultanously in the same region.  Brazil has recently been facing an extreme enviromental and life condition issue dealing with the over-crowding of the cities.  The urbanization rate has increased from 47.0 percent in 1960 to 78.2 percent in 1991. Because of the over-crowding, discrepancies, such as inadequate sanitation, and clean drinking water exist between poor and better-off city dwellers.  16% of the city dwellers lack a proper disposal system because they do not have the funds to pay for such necesities.  Most of the people are employeed by the factories or steel mills in the larger cities and recieve $4.75 per days work.  Although schooling is compulsory and free until the age of 14 an estimated 5 million children and 25 percent of poorest children do not attend school.  It is thought that these students drop out in order to earn an income for their families or live too far from a school building.        
        
São Paulo: Brazil's 2nd largest
                  city                      
Rio de Janeiro: Brazil's largest and most well known city
 
The life of a city dweller is often superior to that of an agrarian worker because in rural areas, only 61% of dwellings have water and sewerage access, and only 55% have electricity. Since the 1930's the govenment has focused very little attention on its agricultural society and the farmer's quality of life has suffered because of it.  The nation switched to a more industrial based economy and left the agricultural economy behind, even though the second highest sector of employment is in the agricultral field (20%), their needs were often ignored in favor of improving the function of the cities.  This is the greatest distinguishing factor in class system of Brazil, the difference between poor and wealthy.  22% of Brazil's population lives below the poverty line, 41% of that bottom half live outside of the city.  There is also a huge gap between the lowest 10% income percentage and highest 10% income percentage share
(lowest 10%: 0.7% highest: 48%)

In recent years the poor of the nation are turning to the flourishing illicit drug trade that can bring them from desolately poor to quite wealthy.  The trade of cannibus, which can br grown extremely easily along the Amazon River basin has been an alternative to the agrarian workers who felt left behind by their government and country.  Cocaine is also becoming a prevailant crop for Brazilians to produce for the every growing European and US markets.  "I make three times the money I did before I started selling cannibus to the Columbian drug trade" said Carlon Dez a resident of outside Manuas, (TIME August 2005) People are turing to the easy money of the drug trade to bring themselves up a class.  The president is making strides to try and recognize the need for more attention on the agricultural sector of Brazil.  He hopes that if he does that than the gap between the rich and the poor will diminish along side the decline of the drug culture the country has recently developed.

There are little to no race issues in the nation other than its previous conflicts with the indigenious population which are now being paid more attention to.  The  Amerindians are the indigenous people of Brazil and have been coexisting with the European influenced society since the 1500's.  The early rounds of the relationship were mared with enslavement and slaughter.  It is estimated that the original Amerindian population of Brazil ranged from 2 to 5 million at the time of first contact with Europeans in the early sixteenth century (US Library of Congress).  This number dwindled to a pathetic 150,000 by the early twentieth century due to violence and disease on behalf of the European population.  In 1910 the the Indian Protection Service was established by Marechal Cândido Rondon, who ardently worked for Amerindian rights to land and freedoms. 
                                   
In 1968 the National Indian Foundation replaced the IPS, due to the corruption within the organization. The Indian Statute went into effect in 1973 and more progress was made when the 1988 constitution provided that Indians are entitled to the lands that they traditionally occupy.  Unfortunately Amnesty International still reports of several injustices being inflicted upon the Amerindians of Brazil even to this day.  The failure of the government to protect the land of the Amerindians is what has outraged them the most as well as the complete neglect of any judical ramifications against those who act against the Amerindians land claims.  Indigenous leaders campaigning to speed up the transfer of land have suffered death threats, violent attacks and killings, with little or no protection from the State (Amnesty International).  These tensions were highlighted at the 500th anniversary of Brazil when many indigenous leaders felt the government was using their culture as a marketing tool especially because many of the most vocal and dominant leaders were not allowed to particpate in the festivities.  Fortunately the new President is a known ally of the indigenous people and helped write and pass the Commitment to the Indigenous Peoples of Brazil, the government’s manifesto for Indians issued in September 2002. This document acknowledged the many errors of the past, and set out a clear strategy for tackling the complex issues and conflicts that for many years have left a large part of Brazil’s indigenous population exposed to human rights abuses (Amnesty International).   There is hope in the future for this relationship to come to a better place where everyone is valued and respected.


Part III:  Social Changes

This section acts as a report card for Brazil in terms of its successes or failures for its citizen's life conditions.  The first means to measure is Brazil's Educational System, the second will be a measure of Gender Equity, the third is a measurement of Health and Welfare, the fourth measures Population Problems, the fifth measure is of Environmental Changes, the sixth will be Measures of Access to Modern Communication, and the final measure will be Measures of Urbanization.

Educational Measurement

According to the International Standard Classification of Education "Primary education provides children with basic reading, writing, and mathematics skills along with an elementary understanding of such subjects as history, geography, natural science, social science, art, and music."  By federal mandate primary education is compulsory for all Brazilian children under the age of 14, unfortunately as afore mentioned, this law is not strickly regulated.  In 1980 only 82% of the children under 14 years of age attended primary school.  There have been great advancements within the last 20 years.  The table below shows Brazil's primary school inrollment in 2000, 2001, and 2002 (more current data is unvailable pending the analysis of a recent census).
Measurement
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
School enrollment, primary (% net) 95 97 97 n/a.. n/a..
School enrollment, secondary (% net)
69 72 75 n/a.. n/a..
Source: World Development Indicators database
As is displayed the percent of children attending school has increased 2% from within just one calendar year.  Although 2% seems like a small finding it signals a change in the importance of early childhood education.  Brazil is beginning to realize that education regulations should be followed at least at the primary level.  It is also interesting to note that Brazil has substantially higher attendence rate than some of its South American neighbors such as Colombia that ended 2002 with a rate of only 87% attending primary education, and Venezuela which ended 2002 with a rate of 91%.  Furthermore Brazil has a higher attendence rate the the world's most powerful nation, the United States that only has an attendence rate of 92%.
The secondary level (also displayed on the chart) is not as positive but still has promise.  This level shows the most significant drop off happens when the child reaches the secondary level which is defined once again by the International Standard Classification of Education as "
completes the provision of basic education that began at the primary level, and aims at laying the foundations for lifelong learning and human development, by offering more subject- or skill-oriented instruction using more specialized teachers."  Only 69% of the young adult population remained in school in 2000, but by 2002 that statistic jumped up to 75% of the young adult population attended secondary education.  Once again Brazil is ahead of its continental counter-parts, Colombia finishes 2002 with a secondary attendence percentage of only 55%, Venezuela with 59%.  This is where  the United States surpasses Brazil with a percentage of 88% of the population attending secondary education.  Brazil still has a goal to work towards.  They appear to have found a way to educate the majority of their population at the primary level, now they need to focus on secondary education.

In 2003 the adult literacy rate for females in Brazil was 89% a surprising 1 percentage point higher than the males of the country who had a literacy rate of 88% in 2003.  This shows that females are recieving as much if not more education than the males in  the nation which is a promising fact.  88-89% comparitively is disapointing especially since the enrollment percentages are so much higher than other South American nations, but both Colombia and Venezuela have higher literacry rates (95% F 94% M, and 93% F+M repectively).  So Brazil's education system could use improvements, although children are generally attending school what are they learning?  This could also be attributed for because the educational system has only improved within recent years and the literacy rates only measure adults who were a product of the previous insufficent educational system.

Measure of Gender Equity


                                                                                                                      LATIN         UPPER  
                                                                                         BRAZIL               AMERICA    INCOME
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION 1980  1990  1995  2000  1980  2000  1980  2000 
Total labor force (millions) 48 65 73 80 129 220 94 138
Labor force, female (% of total labor force) 28 35 35 36 28 35 34 37
Unemployment                
   Total (% of total labor force) 2.8 3.7 6.1 9.6
..
9.2
..
9
   Female (% of female labor force) 2.8 3.4 7.3 12.1
..
10.5
..
8.9
EDUCATION ACCESS AND ATTAINMENT                
Net primary school enrollment rate                
   Male
..
..
..
98
..
96
..
93
   Female
..
..
..
91

As the above chart shows Brazilian women have a fairly equal place in the society.  Their enrollment rates are slightly less than their male counterparts but not significantly.  They actually have a higher literacy rates than the males of the nation.  They also are allowed to contribute to the work force and appear to be right on par with their continent as well as upper income citizens.  The total fertility rate in Brazil is only 2.2 because they recieve information about contriceptives and are also given a higher status in society than some of the other nations which suffer from higher birth rates.  It has been shown that when women have a more elevated role in society the birth rates will drop.  This happend in Brazil.

The above graph shows how drastically Brazil's total fertility rate has declined over the past 42 years quite rapidly which can be a signal of improved female status.  The more women as exposed to an are given the opportunity to engage in the less likely they are to have a lot of children.  The drop from slightly over 6 children per women down to slightly over 2 children shows that females are paying more attention to environmental concerns as well as financial concerns.  They have been educated about the dangers of over population.  In fact 76% of the married women of the nation are using some form of contriceptive to prevent over population and unwanted pregnancies (statistic from WomenofOurWorld).  Despite the education and use of contriceptives, abortion is still prohibited in the country.  This may stem from the country's strong alliegence to the Roman Catholic Church which strongly apposes all forms of abortion and birth control.  Still the women of Brazil do not have the legal right to chose how to deal with their own bodies which is slightly belittling and unequal.

A place were Brazil could use some work in terms of gender equity is in political representation.  Although the women os Brazil have been able to vote for over 70 years they have not been extremely active in the governing process.  And despite the fact that the number of women holding a high governmental position has increased from 7 to 9 from 1995-2004, that is still less than 10 women's voices being heard.  By 2004 Brazil has the fewest women in the government in their region.  Argentina has 34 women while Guyana has 20 making Brazil's 9 look pathetic.  Brazil is the only nation on the continent not to have at least 10 women participating in government action.  This is disapointing since it has been a leader in other gender equity issues.  This is something the Brazilian government as well as the people should look into rectifying. 


                                   Although women like  Emília Fernandes
 have made great strides to advance women in politics.  She started the Division for the Advancement of Women which is an organization that works for women's rights.  This organization was instrumental in promoting  the current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has a general concern for more impoverished groups since he was a steel worker from one of the nation's poorest regions.  Women like Emilia are working hard to have the desires of Brazilian women heard, but she also calls out to more women to join with her in the government.  Brazil would be better off for it.
Health and Welfare

Country or area/        IMR        IMR        IMR expectancy expectancy expectancy
Year both sexes male female both sexes male female
---------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Brazil

1960 116.00 124.00 107.00 53.00 50.00 55.00
1970 97.87 102.91 92.58 57.54 55.29 59.91
1975 87.83 95.15 80.14 60.11 56.97 63.40
1980 73.68 80.17 66.87 62.53 59.07 66.16
1985 60.92 66.39 55.18 64.84 61.11 68.75
1990 49.92 54.28 45.35 67.00 63.06 71.14
1995 41.89 46.04 37.54 68.71 64.72 72.90
2000 35.22 39.24 31.01 70.26 66.27 74.44
2005 29.61 33.37 25.66 71.69 67.74 75.85
---------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International
Data Base.

Above shows data from 1960 about the Infant Mortality Rates, as well as the life expectancy rates for Brazil. As anyone would imagine, things in terms
of medical situations have improved. The infant mortality rate has dropped from 116 babies to only 29.61 babies that die before reaching adulthood.
That is a 74.5% decrease in deaths. Clearly Brazil's health care system has improved to see finding so dramatic as that! That means that on average 86.31
per 1,000 births survive infancy. That is an extremely positive statistic for Brazilian healthcare. The life expectancy for both males and females has also
increased over the years which shows that people are recieving better healthcare their entire lives. They may also be exposed to cleaner drinking water
and more sanitary living conditions which can only impove health concerns. The World Bank reports that in 2000 53% of the rural population
and 95% of the urban population had improved access to
cleaning drinking water as well as 43% of the rural population and 84% of
the urban population having access to improved sanitation The life expectancy for males in 1960 was only 50 years old, females
55 years old. In 2005 the life expectancy of males has increased by 17.74 years and a percentage of 26.18%. The females also experience additional years
added on to their lives, in 1960 they were expected to live to be 55, in 2005 the estimated expectancy is 75.86 that is an over 20 year increase and a
27.48% increase in life expectancy. Clearly the health and welfare of the Brazilian citizens is only getting better. With every five years came a steady
increase of additonal life.

Also in terms of vaccination practices Brazil is making advancements. The World Health Organization reports that In 1996 only 80% of the population
were vaccinated for DPT3, but by 2002 a staggering 96% of the population was administered the vaccine. The improvement goes for other vaccines
as well, namely Measles which went from 87.2% in 1996 to 93% by 2002 as well as Polio, in 1996 only 80.7% had the vaccination, but by 2002
97% of the Brazilian population was getting the vaccine. This shows an improved medical system or least and improved medical education
program to get the word out about the importance of health care and prevention of disease.

Population Problems

Table 001. Total Midyear Population
---------------- --------------------
Country or area Brazil                                            
                                                                        Brazil's population is growing quickly.  The world is experiencing a   

Year                 Population                               population boom and Brazil is not exempt from that.  As the table to
---------------- --------------------                            the left displays, Brazil's population has grown 61.48% over the past
Brazil                                                               25 years.  With that many people it is not surprising that the                                                                                                                                              environment will start to feel the ramifications of the                                                       Overcrowding in                                                                                        Sao Paulo and Rio, with populations of 18 million and 7 million
                                                                                          respectively, has polluted water sources, denuded mountainsides and spawned 
                                                                                          outbreaks of disease and unmanageable criminal violence.
                                         1960                 71,694,810                             
1965                 83,092,908                                         
1970                 95,684,297
1975                108,823,732                                                    
1980                122,958,132                                                            
1985                137,302,933
1990                151,083,809                             But the use of contriceptives is slowing the rate of birth down to
1995                163,542,501                             almost below replacement level (2.2) so that should improve Brazil's
2000                175,552,771                             population situation.  In fact the percent of increase between the years
2005                186,112,794                             is already starting to lessen.  From 1975 to 1980 the precent increase            
---------------- --------------------                             was 11.5% and from 2000 to 2005 the rate of increase was down to 5.67%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International
       

Environmental Changes

Only 6.9% of Brazil's rainforests are protected.  This is a major problem for the nation as well as the world.  This effects more than just Brazil, as the rainforest in Brazil are responsible for 87% of our oxygen and approximately 89% of the world's pharmaceuticals.  48% of the nation finds itself in a forest ecosystem yet little is being down to protect these forests.  In fact Rio de Janero used to be covered in 97% forest now only less than 20% remains.  Large cities such as Rio and Sao Paulo
are experiencing more air polution than ever before because the purification system they are used to (the dense rainforest) is being lessend.  Loggers are cutting down these forests for paper products mainly, but  the world leaders from the United States, Europe and Asia are all pleading with the Brazilian government to protect more forests.  The counter with the fact that the United States and Europe used to be covered with forests and they depleted all their resources so why should Brazil listen to them when the log trade is bringing in a huge revenue into the economy.  But the rainforest is truly "fading fast" under  the pressure of loggers.

              

Although the deforestation rates are down from previous years (1995 being the most damaging) environmentalists are worried by the 21.44% increase in deforestation that happend between 1997 and 1998, did that signal a new trend in ignoring environmental needs?  It is thought that the fewer trees in the region have started a new trend in enviromental degredation;
Desertification.   This means that the soils and vegetation are severely degraded possibly because of no tree coverage, the land is subjected to harsher sun exposure than it is accustom to. In the early 1990s, it became evident that the "semiarid caatinga ecosystem of the Northeast was losing its natural vegetation through clearing and that the zone was therefore running the risk of becoming even more arid, as was occurring also in some other regions" (US Library of Congress) this trend only furthers the need for environmental restrictions of cutting down the rainforest.  Despite favorable laws, promising institutional arrangements, and external funding, the government has not, on the whole, been effective in controlling damage to the environment.  This can be accounted for because of the fiscal crisis the nation experienced and the money that was coming in from the lumber trade.  Hopefully the government will soon see the importance of the environment to Brazil as well as the world, although this is a concern that every nation's leader has to take a more ardent look at. 
Access to Modern Communication

Brazilians have excellent access to modern communication.  THe CIA Factbook reports that there are 46,737,300 cellular phones in use within the country.  That mean that 74.88% of the population has access to a cellular phone.  Although on the continent Brazil falls at about the middle in terms of access to modern communication.  Argentina's statistic for fixed phone and mobile phone subscriptions per 1,000 people is 396 while Brazil's is slightly smaller with 319.  They are also exposed to 138 different television stations which are opporated by private companies not government officials.   The internet service is described as storng and good and there are about 14.3 million internet users which is less than cell phone users but still a large number of people exposed to that type of communication. 
Measure of Urbanization

Firstly it is important to note that the world's urbanization rate has increased dramatically since the 1950's

Less Developed Nation's Urbanization Rates
1950
1975
2000
2003
2030
.31
.81
1.97
2.15
3.93

This increase is expected to continue until the 2030's.  Currently 77% of Latin American people live in urban areas which is projected to increase to 84.6% by 2030.  In 2003 Sao Paulo was the world's 4th most populous city with 17.9 million people inhabiting it.  Rio de Janiero also makes the list of the top 20 coming in at #14 with 11.2 million residents.  Brazil is an extremely populated nation as is shown by its appearance on the list twice, but it is also significant to realize that its cities are so large that they are as high up as #4 and #14.  "Numerous efforts have been made at the policy level to stimulate settlement in the interior, including colonization in the Amazon, and to limit the growth of the largest cities while strengthening middle-sized cities. Despite these efforts, however, most public policies have continued to favor population concentration in the Southeast and in large cities by promoting industry at the cost of agriculture and by providing services and benefits primarily to urban residents" (US Library of Congress).  As previously stated in this description of Brazil, the government spends most of its time dealing with the people in the cities so those residents outside of the city suffer.  This makes more and more people want to migrate to the cities to get better jobs as well as living conditions.  Unfortunately this oftens ends up being counter-productive because the over-crowding becomes a strain on the resources of the city so life conditions often suffer.



A recent census revealed promising news though.  It appears that that rate at which people are moving to the cities has decreased 20% since the last census was taken in 2000.  People are opting to move to smaller cities closer to their communities rather than making the more difficult moves to the larger over-crowded cities.  Once again President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is said to be responsible for this trend because of his insistence on informing people about the over population problem in the larger cities.  People are now also opting to level Brazil all together and are migrating to the United States, Canada, Portugal, as well as Japan.


Part IV: Economic Changes





The first graph I created using the International Futures program shows the Gross Domestic Product per capita for the World, South America, and finally Brazil through the year 2100.  These projections are very interesting and optimistic.  The program suggests that the GDP of the entire world is likely to increase by the year 2100 by a substantial amount, but it is also interesting to note that Brazil is going to exceed the World’s GDP by a great deal as well.

            The graph reflects that in the year 2000, the World has an 18.23% higher GDP per capita than Brazil and a 24.97% higher GDP per capita then South America.  For its region, Brazil is doing fairly well, with a GDP per capita that is 8.25% higher than the average for South America.  In fact, throughout the entire projection, Brazil will have a higher GDP per capita than its region.  By the year 2040, Brazil is starting to catch up to the World’s GDP, with the percentage between the two shrinking to 4.28%, and remaining ahead of South America by a higher percentage (10.79%).  This trend of economic growth continues for the rest of the projection. 

            In 2050, Brazil is predicted to exceed the World’s GDP per capita by 12.74%.  The growth gets more rapid throughout the next 50 years ending in 2100 with Brazil and South America both exceeding the World’s GDP.  Brazil ends with a GDP of 93.632 thousand dollars with South America coming in second with 84.325 thousand and the World with 63.921.  This is a growth of 95.11% from 2000.  Brazil is expected to have a 31.73% higher GDP than the World and a 9.94% higher GDP than its regional neighbors.  It is interesting to see that Brazil GDP per capita will improve so greatly in the next 100 years even to the point where it will surpass the World average.  This makes sense because as reported in The Economist August 27, 2005 edition “In 2004 the economy grew 4.9% and growth is likely to increase another 3% this year before picking up again in 2006” (Economist).  Brazil is showing signs of an enhanced economic situation early in the century so the substantial long-term improvement prediction is logical.  Although the trend across the board tends to be a vast improvement in the GDP per capita, Brazil will experience the greatest economic development.

In the year 2000, South America and Brazil place a greater emphasis on agriculture than the World appears to.  The World has 10.8% lower agricultural percentage than Brazil in terms of production by sector for the region.  As it is to be expected, South America has a similar percentage as Brazil with only a 2% higher percent in agricultural importance than Brazil.  All three areas have manufactures as the highest contributor to the production with all of them reporting high 30’s for the percentage (World 38.3%, SA 35.5%, and Brazil 37%).  Manufactures are similarly important to all of these economies. 

            In general, these three regions are very similar, they vary slightly in ICTech statistics with Brazil and South America reporting smaller percentages than the World, but all three are under 10%.  The World has an 8.5% higher services percentage than Brazil as well, but South America only has a .5% higher percentage than Brazil.  Brazil and South America are off by 1-2+ percent on most of the categories but this is a very marginal difference.

            By the year 2025, Brazil and South America will once again have similar statistics varying by 2 or fewer percentage points, namely in the energy and manufactures categories,  South America will post a 1.4% higher percentage in energy than Brazil and a 1.5% lower percent in manufactures.  Brazil and South America will lower their dependence on agriculture (Brazil by 6.9%) by the year 2025, but the World will decline as well (World drops 5.2%) showing an overall drop in agriculture as a production sector. 

            Manufactures remain the most important for all three charts, but they also have all increased in importance.  There is only a .6% difference between Brazil and the rest of the World in terms of manufactures, and both are approaching 50% (technically low 40’s).  Services also see a jump in percentage.  Brazil rises 3.2% in 25 years and only trails the World’s service production by 5.8%. Brazil is following the overall trends for the world with an increase of emphasis on services, ICTech, and manufactures and less of a focus on agriculture.

            The International Futures program predicts that by the year 2050 all three regions are very comparable.  They all have fewer than ten percent for agriculture (Brazil and South America still have a higher percent than the World 7.8 and 7.6 percent respectively), around 1% for energy, around 8% for materials, a growth in manufactures all above 40% as well as a growth in services and ICTech.

            Manufactures remains the highest percentage for all three regions.  In fact, Brazil and the World have identical percentages for manufactures with 44.1% of the entire production for the area.  It appears that the trend for the next century is one of expanding the manufactures sector of production seeing as how the World increased its percent of manufactures by 5.8%, South America increased by 7.9% and Brazil by 7.1%. 

            Services also sees an across the board increase reflecting a fairly similar statistic (World-34.7%, South America- 32.4%, and Brazil- 33.4%).  Brazil is not that different from its geographic region and the world as a whole when it comes to the production per sector that is projected over the next 50 or so years.  It will stop focusing as much on agriculture and place its energies in terms of promoting the services and manufactures. 

            Brazil’s current economy is in a state of growth, up 4.0% from 2004 and has strong real exports, which are currently booming.  The Economist reports that the “trade surplus is heading for a record $40 billion this year, which makes foreign debt more manageable and helps shield the economy from financial panics.”  In October of this year, total exports were up by a remarkable 24% even though the dollar suffered a horrible 17% decline against the Real.  As stated earlier in this paper, Brazil is focusing on its manufactured exports, which account for “57% percent of total exports, and are up by 28% since 2004” (Latinnews Daily).

            Overall, Brazil is experiencing a positive economy comparatively; the national wage average is continuing to rise quicker than consumer demand and inflation.  Still a few dangers lurk in the area of industry.  In fact industrial sales “were down .47% and year-on-year they were down 1.1% as well as employment rates declining .03% compared with August’s numbers” (Latinnews Daily).  

              In comparison to the rest of South America Brazil is doing well, but the entire region is looking to improve in the near future “supported by strengthening of global economy, particularly in trade volumes, commodity prices, and capital flows, and the per capita GDP over long term (2005-2015) projected to average 2.6 percent a year” (World Bank).  Still Brazil has about a 7% higher GDP per capita than the rest of South America and that is mainly because of their slight departure from agriculture and focusing more on industry and exporting manufactured goods along side their more productive agricultural products.



Part V: Prospects for the Future

Brazil's future looks remarkably promising.  In fact in the International Futures Program senario projecting the world's transition in power.





This exercise focused namely on Brazil’s Total Power.  The 1st graph shows how Brazil’s share of the total power will shift over the next one hundred years.  It is quite remarkable how much more power Brazil will have in the year 2100.  From the year 2000-2025 Brazil will experience a loss of power dropping from 2.3% of the world’s power to 2.1% in 25 years.  Looking at the second chart which details Brazil’s change in four different measures of total power (% Population, %Gross Domestic Product, % Conventional Power, and % Nuclear Power) one can try and see why the nation experienced a loss in power.



From 2008-2035 the nation experiences a 5.73% decrease in conventional military power which will automatically affect Brazil’s overall power standing.  The population will decline throughout the course of the century even though the nation will experience an increase in power so it seems slightly a non-factor initially.  Although the nations overall power decreases in 2090 which could show that the fertility rate dipped below replacement level and now  the aged population does not have enough young people to take care of them and further the success of the nation.

The GDP is also on the rise during this time of decline so it is my assumption that the decline is mainly because of the decline in conventional military power.  Brazil starts to make strides for improvement in the year 2044 this is probably because the nation experiences it highest improvement in GDP between the years 2044-2053 when Brazil’s GDP rises by 13.81% and the conventional power increases by its highest percentage as well with a 19.21% jump.  It is no surprise that this is the highest jump for the nation’s total power either with an 11% increase in total power. 

Brazil steadily improves in its total power over the next 100 years due in part to the steady increase of its GDP and its conventional power.  The rate of increase slows to under 10% increase for GDP and conventional power at around 2062 which explains why the jumps of total power stop as well.  This may also explain why the nation experiences a dip in power from year 2095-2100 it slowed to a point of stagnation.  And the fact that Brazil has no nuclear capacity (the absence of a line signifies it does not have a nuclear force) does not help the nation gain any ground in terms of global power percentage.


Brazil is going to have quite a century as it looks to bring its power standing from #9 all the way up to #4.  That is due in part to a dramatic increase in GDP (41.76% increase from 2000-2100) and in conventional power (48.63% increase from 2000-2100) and the decrease of population making it easier to support the population.  The international futures program has a very optimistic view of Brazil’s future. 
    Because Brazil has a fairly well educated female population it will only help them in the long run.  It will help the environment because with increased education females tend to produce less children so there will be fewer people to place a strain on the resources. 
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plan of tight fiscal years and a balanced budget will help Brazil reach a new level of superiority.  It is projected because of all these things that Brazil will becaome one of most powerful nations in the world, in fact it will be #4!  Clearly Brazil will improve over the next 100 years.