Exercise No. 4
1.  Food Scenario --   Increasing  Agricultural Technology
2.  Population Scenario  --  Increasing mortality  (AIDS scenario)


1.)  Food Scenario
  1. Read Chapter 4 ("Understanding and Using IFs") in Exploring and Shaping International Futures for background instructions on creating a scenario.  Read Chapter 7 ("Food and Agriculture"), especially pp. 133-134 for a description of this particular scenario.
  2. In the food scenario you will the increase the agricultural yield multiplier (ylm) as described on pp. 134.  You will do this by shifting the agricultural yield multiplier (ylm) from 1.0 to 1.1, 1.2. or 1.3.  The effect of this change would be to increase the effectiveness of agricultural technology by 10% or 20%. or 30%.  Your task is the create this scenario and then examine some consequences.  Specifically, you will look at the impact such a change could have on your region's agricultural production (AGP), and two other relevant variable of your choice (think of variables that might be impacted by an increase in agricultural production).
  3. Open up the IF program.
  4. Open up "Scenario Analysis" and choose the "Guided Scenario Analysis" option and hit "Continue."  Since you have already explored the base case for your country in previous exercises, you can hit "Next" in Step One.  In Step 2 choose your country.  In Step 3 just hit "Next."
  5. In Step 4 expand "Technological Change" by clicking on the "+" next to it and choose "Agriculture and Food" and click on "ylm" ("yields multiplier").  Your country's name should already be highlighted so just hit "enter.".  Click the "Fully Customize " button and in the" desired value" box change the "1" to either a 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3.  In the "Years to Repeat" box put "10" and hit the interpolate button.  You have now gradually increased agricultural technology over the period from 2005 to 2015.
  6. Now go back to the "Years to repeat or interpolate" box and replace the "10" with a "30."  Hit the "Change/Repeat" button  -- you have now kept that change in effect for the next 30 year.
  7. Hit the "Exit to Scenario Tree" button and then hit the "Ok" button.  Back in the Step 4 screen hit the "Next" button.  You will be asked to "save your scenario" and you should give a name and save this scenario -- to your usb drive it possible.
  8. In the "year to which the model will run" box replace "2025" with "2030."  Hit the "Start Run" button and wait until the model has finished calculating the changes that you introduced.  This can take some time, have patience -- you have asked the model to recalculate values for all other variables in the model based on the changes you just made in military expenditures.  Hit the "click to continue" button when the "run successful box" comes up.
  9. In the Step 6 screen you can see some of the changes the model predicts will happen if agricultural technology is increased by 10% or 20% or 30%.  In the "select year" box you can select 2030, the last year for this scenario, and compare the figures for the "base file."  Now produce two bar charts documenting these changes. 
  10. Click on "Display," and then the "Self-Managed Flexible Display."  In the "type name" box type "AGP." Click on AGP, choose "crops" and your country. 
  11. Find the "Files Available for Display" box and select "1 - IFsBase.run." Again hit AGP, "crops" and choose your country.  You have now brought up the "base model" and used it to calculate your country's crop output.  This variable is labeled "AGP(1)."
  12. Hit the "Go to Display" button.  Hit the "Graph" button and choose "bar chart" to see the data on crop production under your scenario [the AGP(0) column] and under the base model [the AGP(1) column].  Using the skills you acquired in doing Exercise No. 2 & 3 produce a correctly labeled  bar graph of these data.  If you go to "Display Format" in the Display Menu you can then go to "Format Legends" and customize the labels on your chart.  Click on the AGP(working) and replace it with a label like "20% increase in Agricultural Technology" (assuming you increased the multiplier by 1.2) and hit enter.  Click on the AGP(base) and replace it with "No Increase in Agricultural Tech."  If labels appear in other columns just click on them and replace them with a blank "space" and hit enter.  Your can label the "y" axis label by hitting the "Set Title" option under the "Display Format" tab.  When your bar graph appears right click on it and hit the "Customization Dialog."   You can then enter a good title and subtitle, change the "numeric precision" to an appropriate number of decimal places and choose the "both" button under the "Display" option to have both a graph and a table.  Your bar graph should end up looking something like this:  


  13. Hit the "Save" tab and "export" this graph to the clipboard.  Open up a Word file and paste this graph into the Word document.  Go back to the IF "Graphical Display" window and "save" the graph again as a JPG file and "export" it to your USB drive for later use in your country study.  When saving these JPG files for later use you might want to change the "pixel" numbers from 1000 to 750 and from 732 to 549.  This will produce a bar graph that can more easily "fit" into a web page.
  14. Hit Continue and Go back to step 11 and repeat the process for your second variable  -- such as the price of crops (FPRI) or millions of malnourished children (MALNCHIL) .   When you hit the "Select names" box don't forget to clear selections each time, and don't forget to hit the "change file" button to bring up your new scenario.  Again, you should produce a correctly labeled bar graph like either of these:

     


  15. Save the graph in your Word file and as a JPG file.  Write an analysis describing how your change in agricultural technology impacted crop production (AGP).   Don't forget to mention how much you increased agricultural technology -- 10% or 20% or 30%.  Examine what happens to the differences over time.  Try to explain why you think these differences occurred.  Do this for your second graph.  Analysis should be easy for crop production changes, it might be more difficult to "explain" you other finding.


Exercise No. 4
2.  Population Scenario  --  Increasing mortality  (AIDS scenario)


2.  Population Scenario
  1. Read Chapter 4 ("Understanding and Using IFs") in Exploring and Shaping International Futures for background instructions on creating a scenario.  Read Chapter 5 ("Population"), especially pp. 92-97 for background on this particular scenario.
  2. If you have just done a scenario then exit and reenter International Futures to clear the computer of your previous scenario.
  3. In the population scenario you will use the % of your country's adults who are HIV positive.  (All data can be found on the WHO's AIDS Epidemiological Fact Sheet --  http://www.who.int/emc-hiv/fact_sheets/index.html  --  for your country).   You will then increase (or decrease) the mortality multiplier (mortm) for your country's region accordingly.  If the % is very high (larger than 20%) and has increased recently, you might increase the multiplier to 1.5.  If  the % HIV positive is larger than 6% but smaller than 20%, you might increase the mortality multiplier (mortm) for your country's region to 1.3.   If less than 6% but more that 1% of your country's population is HIV positive you might increase the mortality multiplier (mortm) for your country's region a to 1.2     If less than 1% but more than .5% of your country's population is HIV positive you might decrease the mortality multiplier (mortm) for your country's region a to .9.  If less than .5% of your country's population is HIV positive you might decrease the mortality multiplier (mortm) for your country's region a to .8.  Your task is the create this scenario and then examine some consequences.   Specifically, you will look at the impact such a change could have on your region's population (POP), and one other variable of your choice -- such as deaths (DEATHS) or life expectancy (LIFEXP).
  4. Open up the IF program.
  5. Open up "Scenario Analysis" and choose the "Guided Scenario Analysis" option and hit "Continue."  Since you have already explored the base case for your country in previous exercises, you can hit "Next" in Step One.  In Step 2 choose your country.  In Step 3 just hit "Next."
  6. In Step 4 expand "Technological Change" by clicking on the "+" next to it and choose "Demographic/Population" and click on "mortm" ("mortality multiplier").  Your country's name should already be highlighted so just hit "enter."Click the "Fully Customize " button and in the" desired value" box change the "1" to a to the number you decided on in step 3.   In the "Years to Repeat" box put "10" and hit the interpolate button.  You have now gradually changed your mortality multiplier over the period from 2000 to 2010.
  7. Now go back to the "Years to repeat or interpolate" box and replace the "10" with a "30."  Hit the "Change/Repeat" button  -- you have now kept that change in effect for the next 30 year.
  8. Hit the "Exit to Scenario Tree" button and then hit the "Ok" button.  Back in the Step 4 screen hit the "Next" button.  You will be asked to "save your scenario" and you should give a name and save this scenario -- to your usb drive it possible.
  9. In the "year to which the model will run" box replace "2020" with "2030."  Hit the "Start Run" button and wait until the model has finished calculating the changes that were introduced by your government's level of military expenditures.  This can take some time, have patience -- you have asked the model to recalculate values for all other variables in the model based on the changes you just made to the mortality multiplier.  Hit the "click to continue" button when the "run successful box" comes up.
  10. In the Step 6 screen you can see some of the changes the model predicts will happen if your mortality change assumptions come true.  In the "select year" box you can select 2030, the last year for this scenario, and compare the figures for the "base file," with no mortality change, to those for the "run file."   Now produce three particular bar charts documenting these changes. 
  11. Click on "Display," and then the "Self-Managed Flexible Display."  In the "type name" box type "POP."  Click on POP (population in millions) and choose your country.  This variable is labeled "POP(0)" and contains the data that flow from your mortality changes.
  12. Find the "Files Available for Display" box and select "1 - IFsBase.run." Again hit POP and choose your country.  You have now brought up the "base model" and used it to calculate your country's population under the the model's original mortality assumptions.  This variable is labeled "POP(1)."
  13. Hit the "Go to Display" button.  Hit the "Graph" button and choose "bar chart" to see the data on population under your scenario [the POP(0) column] and under the base model [the POP(1)column].  Using the skills you acquired in doing Exercise No. 2 produce a correctly labeled  bar graph of these data.  If you go to "Display Format" in the Display Menu you can then go to "Format Legends" and customize the labels on your chart -- you should know how to do this by now.  Your can label the "y" axis label by hitting the "Set Title" option under the "Display Format" tab.  When your bar graph appears right click on it and hit the "Customization Dialog."   You can then enter a good title and subtitle, change the "numeric precision" to an appropriate number of decimal places and choose the "both" button under the "Display" option to have both a graph and a table.  Your bar graph should end up looking something like
    this:


  14. Repeat the process for your second variable, such as DEATHS or LIFEXP (life expectancy).  The bar graphs should look like this:

     



  15. Save your bar graphs and analysis in a Word file.  Hit "Save" and "Export" and then open up a Word file and paste the graph into it.  Go back to the IF "Graphical Display" window and "save" the graph again as a JPG file and "export" it to your USB drive for later use in your country study.  When saving these JPG files for later use you might want to change the "pixel" numbers from 1000 to 750 and from 732 to 549.  This will produce a bar graph that can more easily "fit" into a web page. You have to click the "file" button and hit the "browse" tab and find your USB drive to save it there.

    In your Word file you should have two graphs.  Underneath each graph write an analysis of how your change in mortality rates impacted your country's population size and number of deaths or life expectancy.  Don't forget to examine what happens to the differences over time.  Remember, by "interpolating" these changes over an initial 10 year period you cannot expect to see the full effect of the changes until 2010.   Try to explain why you think these differences exist between the two scenarios  -- the "causal" connection.  A good analysis can be done in several  paragraph or two.  Remember, you have a food scenario analysis and a population scenario analysis for this exercise.