Exercise No. 2  -- Trend Analysis.

1. Open up the IF program.
2. Open up "Data Analysis" and click on the "analyze across time" option.
3. In the "select dependent variable" box type in "population" and click on the "Population - Population in millions" box.
4. Click on the "Select Countries" box, choose your country, and exit.
5. Click on the "Plot" box.  A line graph will appear.  You want to produce a correctly labeled 5 year bar graph of your country's population size from 1960 to 2005. 
6. Right click your mouse and choose the "Customization Dialogue" option. You are now ready to produce you customized graph.  In the Main title box type in an appropriate title, such as  "Population of Bangladesh: 1960 - 2005"  There is a "Sub Title" box type in which you can put an appropriate subtitle, such as "Source:  International Futures Data Base, 2008."
7. Hit the "Plot:" tab and choose "bar."  Hit the "Points" tab and choose "selected" (not sequential) and then, holding down the "Ctrl" key, choose five year intervals from 1960 to 2005 -- 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, etc. should be highlighted.  
8. Choose the "OK" option and a correctly labeled 5 year bar graph should now appear.  For ease of analysis do one more thing -- put the actual population size numbers under each bar.  You do this by right clicking your mouse on the graph, going to the "Graph and/or Table" option and choosing the "Graph with Table" option.  Change the "Numeric Percision" to one decimal place. Now your graph should look like this:  
9. Once you have the graph on the screen follow these instructions to place your graph into a Microsoft Word document:

   SAVING YOUR Graph

   Hit the "Save" menu, click on the "Export" box.   This will copy your graph into the Window's clipboard.  Then go to the start menu and go to "Programs," and open "Microsoft Word."   Then go to "Edit" and "paste" the graph into this Word document.  You have now inserted the graph into a Word file as a picture.  If you want to use this graph in your country study webpage it is a good idea to go back to the "Save menu and choose the "file" option, not the clipboard option.  Choose the "JPG" export type.  Hit the "Browse button and give a name to this "picture" such as " MoroccoPopSize" and save it on your USB drive.  Keep your Word File open -- you will be adding more graphs to it.

10. Now go back and produce two more graphs following the above instructions  -- one for the "TFR" (total fertility rate) and one for LifExpect (life expectancy).  Save these graphs to your Word file.  Also save them as "JPG" files. They should look something like these.  Notice that you might not find data available for "perfect" 5 year intervals -- in these cases just come as close as possible -- for example, you might find data available for 1967 instead of 1965.
    
11. Now you will see how the International Futures Model projects the population size, TFR and life expectancy of your country for the next century.  Hit "continue" and "exit" until you are back at the "main menu" screen of International Futures.  Choose "Display" and then "Self Managed Display."   In the "type name" box" type in "POP" and choose "population in millions" and then select your country.  Then hit the "Go to Display" box.
12. Go to the "Graph" menu and choose "bar chart."  A bar chart will appear.  This bar chart is likely to have an inappropriate title.  Again, right click with your mouse and choose the "Customization Dialogue" option. You are now ready to produce your customized graph.  In the Main title box type in an appropriate title, such as Bangladesh;  Projected Population, 2005 - 2100."  In the "Sub Title" box type in an appropriate subtitle, such as "Source:  International Futures Databse."
13. Again, for ease of analysis do one more thing -- put the actual population size numbers under each bar.  Click your mouse on the graph, going to the "Graph and/or Table" option and choosing the "Graph with Table" option.  Change the "Numeric Percision" to zero decimal places.  Now your graph should look like this:  
    
14. Save this graph in your Word file and save a "JPG" file of it on your USB drive.
15. Now go back and produce two more graphs following the above instruction, one for the projected "TFR" (total fertility rate) and one for the projected LifExpect (life expectancy) variables. When going back to choose the variable for the next graph, remember to hit the "Clear Select" box to remove the first variable's data.  Your two additional graphs should look like these:  
16.  Save these graphs to your Word file and as JPG files..
17. You should now have six  bar charts.  Please write three separate trend analyses -- one for trends in population size, one for trends in the Total Fertility Rate, and one for trends in Life Expectancy.  Each trend analysis should include the following:

1.  A clear description of what is being charted.  For example, do not tell me that the population of Morocco is about "26" in 1995.  You should know that the chart unit is millions, and that the population of Morocco is a bit over 26 million in 1995.   What is the measurement unit used in the Total Fertility Rate?  What is the measurement unit used in  the Life Expectancy measure?
2.  An historical analysis of what actually happened to each variables from the year 1960 to today (2005).   How did the Total Fertility Rate change over this period? Were there some periods when change was most rapid?  Were there some periods when change was slow?  What was happening to the TFR at the end of the period?  Etc.
3.  An analysis of how the International Futures Model projects that each variable will change over the 21st century.  According to this model what will happen to life expectancy in your country?  Will there be a rapid increase early in this century followed by a slow increase thereafter?  Etc.  Also ask the question -- do the International Future Model  projections "make sense" considering the historical trends in this variable?  
4.  In a final paragraph see if you can "put together" what is happening in these three trends.  For example, if life expectancy is increasing in your country what will that do to population size?  If the number of babies each woman is having is decreasing in your country what will that do to population size?  How can you understand changes in population size as being a consequence of the changes taking place in the TFR and life expectancy?