So 184, Outline of Research Project:  Comparing Two Populations

Introduction

Each week a section of the project will be collected and graded and returned the following week.  You will need to have a "USB Drive" that you bring to class.  A project "section" will be a Word file containing all the charts, analysis, and additional material required in the project description. You will email it to me before class and also save it on your USB Drive.  You also need to keep and have ready access to all the completed sections of your project since many times one week's project work will use data/analysis from earlier sections, so bring your USB Drive to class.

Policy on the submission of sections:

1. sections have to be e-mailed to "hodgson@.fairfield.edu" before the beginning of class.
2. a section submitted after the beginning of class on its due date will be reduced a letter grade when evaluated.
3. a section will not be accepted if submitted more than a week late, and will be evaluated as an "F."

Your project sections should be proof-read and should be clearly labeled with your name, your countries' names, and the topic of that section.  It should look like this:

In our country comparisons we will be making extensive use of the United Nation's World Population Prospects:  The 2008 Population Database.  Data from this source will be imported into Excel spreadsheets and used to generate an extensive series of charts.  The United Nations volume, World Population Prospects the 2008 Revision Highlights, provides chapters that briefly highlight world and regional patterns for the demographic trends and projections that you will be examining for your two countries.  Knowing these trends will be very useful when you try to determine how distinctive your particular countries' patterns are.   We will be making extensive use of UN databases links to which can be found at their Population Division site:  http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm.

Each section will consist of a single Word file in which you have copied and pasted any required Excel charts, Word tables, news stories, and your own commentary.  It would help if you name this file using this format:  "section1_yourname.doc". Charts included in a section should be labeled and integrated with a "commentary component" in which you interpret the data presented and offer a comparison of the two populations with regard to the topic being discussed - fertility, mortality or whatever.  Your commentary component should always contain your interpretation of the charts presented (please refer to them by the label you give them).  IMPORTANT: Please place the commentary about a specific chart or table directly beneath that chart or table.  Specific suggestions as to what kind of analysis should be included in each section's "commentary" can be found in the detailed section descriptions below.

Part of each class session will be spent compiling the data needed for a particular section.  Each week a section of the project is due and it will be graded and returned the following week.  See the course syllabus for when each section is due.

Go to:

• Section One: Country Profiles
• Section Two: Population Growth
• Section Three: Mortality
• Section Four: Fertility
• Section Five:  Migration
• Section Six:  Age-Sex Composition
• Section Seven: Preparing Your Fertility, Mortality and Migration "guesses" for the future
  
• Section Eight: Producing Population Projections for your two countries
• Section Nine: Gender Equality
• Section Ten: Urbanization
• Section Eleven:  Population and Development
• Section Twelve:  Population Policy

Section 1: Country Profiles

Getting the Data:

• BBC Country Profiles  --  Good place to get information of current political leaders of countries.
  
• CIA World Factbook -- Good, brief, compilations of very current country data brought to you from the US Central Intelligence Agency. Also contains good country and regional maps.  One of the few sources giving estimates of sex ratio at birth and net migration rates.
• State Department Background Notes -- Approximately 20 page descriptions for each of 170 countries. The information is recent (2003-2004) and easily accessible.  Gives good short histories.  Also a good source for finding out your countries' ethnic and language groups.
• Country Studies/Area Handbook Project  --  A continuing series of books prepared by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress.   This Online series presently contains studies of 91 countries.  These books are a good source for historical information on your countries.

Maps

• Perry-Castaneda Library Map Collection --  Excellent collection of maps from the U. of Texas library collection.
  
• CIA Factbook Maps  --  go to county listing to get a map of the country.  Can be easily saved.
• MapQuest  --  country listing of  physical maps.
• Political World Atlas  --  country listing of political maps
• Maps of the World  --  political maps and usually physical maps of each country -- easy to copy and paste.
• National Geographic Map Machine  --  great source for physical maps of countries, regions, etc...

Writing Your Commentary:

Section 2: Population Growth

Getting the Data:

Open up the Excel Population Growth Spreadsheet and follow the instructions on this sheet.   For this spreadsheet you need to import one set of data from the UN site (the first worksheet requires this).  Once the correct data is imported, this spreadsheet will generate the Population Size Charts and the Population Growth Charts that you need for this section.  You should "copy" and "paste" these charts directly into the Word File that will contain your commentary.

When analyzing the Population Size Chart focus on the significance of the population size increase that has occurred over the last 60 years in each of your countries. Also compare the relative changes in population sizes occurring in both of your countries.  The spreadsheet does contain separate Population Size Charts for each of your countries.  You probably will need to include these separate charts in your analysis since the population size differences between your two countries are likely to be so big that you might not be able to adequately examined changes in the population size of your smaller country in the combined chart.

The measure of population growth used in the Population Growth Chart is the "Annual Rate of Increase."  This is the standard measure used to analyze the rate of population growth.  Since we not using data from each year from 1950 to the present, but 5 year data, the Annual Rate of Increase is a calculated rate.  The formula for calculating an annual rate of increase from time period data is:

• Annual Rate of Increase = 1/t * LN (P2/P1)

The Excel Population Growth Spreadsheet does this calculation for you. 

• Take the case of Ghana.  In 1950 its population was 5,243,000 and in 2005 it was 22,113,000.  It is easy to calculate that the population in 2005 is 4.22 times the size it was in 1950 (22,113,000 / 5,243,000 = 4.218) .  You can phrase this as "Ghana's population size has slightly more than quadrupled in size" or "Ghana's population size is 4.2 times larger in 2005 than it was in 1950."  If you want to phrase the change in size as "% larger than," than you would say that "Ghana's 2005 population is 422% larger than its 1950 population" (simply changing the 4.218 result into a percent by moving the decimal place two places to the right).  Finally, if you want to phrase the change in size as a "% increase in population," then you would first calculate the amount that the population has increased (22,113,000 – 5,243,000 = 16,870,000), and then calculate what % 16,870,000 is of 5,243,000 (16,870,000 / 5,243,000 = 3.218 or 322%).  You would than say that "Ghana’s population has experienced a 322% increase in population from 1950 to 2005."  Remember, a 0% increase would be no change in size, a 100% increase would be a doubling, a 200% increase would be a tripling, and a 300% increase would a quadrupling.  

You need to do a Lexis-Nexissearch for newspaper stories dealing with population growth in your two countries.   At the initial Lexis-Nexis screen click on Lexis-Nexis Academics".  Use the "Search the News" box and enter this search term  "country-name's population growth" (for example:  "Kenya's population growth") -- do not forget to include the quote marks (") around this phrase.  You will then get a listing of newspaper stories dealing with population growth in your country in chronological order.   The Kenya search produced over 60 stories.  Click on the stories (the most recent are on the top of the list) to get the full text of the actual story and its source. Look first for stories from papers in your countries.  Read some recent stories and choose two; if you found more than two very good stories than include those as well.  When the story is on the screen you can "highlight" it, copy it, and then paste it at the end of the Word File containing your charts. Place a page in front of each copied storied with the label 'Appendix A" for your first story and "Appendix B" for your second story, etc. When you refer to a story in your commentary, tell the reader which appendix it can be found in.

Writing Your Commentary:

Offer an analysis of trends in population increase (both size and rate of increase) for each country.   First discuss what happened to each country's increase in population size over the last 60 years.   Has population size doubled over this period?  Tripled?  What has been the difference in population size increases between your two countries.  Now examine the annual rate of increase.  Remember, your annual rate of increase tells you when your country was increasing most rapidly or most slowly.  Identify periods of especially rapid or slow growth for each country.  Do they correspond with historical events that you know about?  For example, was there a post WWII population boom in either of your countries?  Compare and contrast these trends for your two countries.  End with a treatment of how population growth is viewed in your two countries  -- using the newspaper stories contained in your appendixes.   Are current rates of growth viewed as too low?  Too high?  Are suggestions being made about the need for a population policy?

Checklist for doing Section 2 on Population Growth:

• Be careful about units in your Population Size and Population Growth charts!   Don't misread your countries’ population sizes as "billions" or "thousands" if they are "millions."   This would be a telling blunder and remember – there are only  6.8 billion people in the world!
• When you examine trends be careful in your terminology.  Don't just look at the number for the first and last time points and then say that there has been a "steady" or "increasing" trend when in fact there has been a number of twists and turns in the number over the period examine.  Your analysis should describe the twists and turns and conclude with an assessment of the most recent trends.
• Don't be too speculative when trying to explain trends.  I would rather have you concentrate more on accurately describing the trends in your charts and tables than on "making up" plausible explanations for them.  If you do have real information that is helpful in explaining a trend, then by all means provide it.  For example, if you discover there was a war being waged at the time of slow growth and many people fled the country -- this is very insightful.  Don't, however, simply "guess" that this might have happened.
• Don't discuss rates and trends that are not in your tables.  For example, you might be tempted to discuss birth rates and fertility when you are examining population growth trends that are increasing.  Don't do it.  You don't know what the actual trends in birth rates are...  Save a discussion of birth rates for the fertility section of this project when you have the actual birth rates in front of you..
• Organize your analysis in a sensible fashion.  For example, present your analysis in several paragraphs for each country.  The first paragraph should go back to 1950 and discuss what happened to its increase in population size over the last 60 years; focus on interpreting your Population Size Chart(s).  Did your countries experience a many fold increase in  population?  This needs to be discussed.   Etc.  The second paragraph should present a more detailed analysis of trends in the rate of growthover the past 60 years – go decade by decade and focus on your Population Growth Chart(s).  Identify the period of most rapid growth and identify what has been happening recently. Add a paragraph that compares/contrasts the trends in both countries, and use the combined 2-country charts when you do this.  Remember that the Population Growth Chart is using the annual rate of growth as its measure.  This allows you to easily compute a "doubling time" -- simply divide that rate into 69 to get the doubling time.  This allows you to come up with an easy comparative measure of the relative population growth rates of both countries.  End with a treatment of how population growth is viewed in your two countries  -- using the newspaper stories contained in your appendixes  Are current rates of growth viewed as too low?  Too high?  Are suggestions being made about the need for a population policy? 
• Talk about the content of your news stories in your analysis...  This way I know that you have actually read the articles.

Section 3: Mortality

Getting the Data:

Open up the Excel Mortality Spreadsheet and follow the instructions on this sheet.  For this spreadsheet you need to import one set of data from the UN site.  Once the correct data is imported, the spreadsheet will generate all the mortality charts that you need for this section.  You should "copy" and "paste" these charts directly into the Word File containing your mortality commentary.

For the AIDS information go to the UNAIDSs  Global surveillance of HIV/AIDS data set.  Find and examine your countries' AIDSinfo Country fact sheets.  You are especially interested in the information contained in the "Estimated Adult Prevalence Rates" for those aged 15 to 49.  Also look at the "Estimated number of people living with HIV/AIDS."    Copy this data into your Section 3 Word File.

NOTE:  IF THE HIV/AIDS COUNTRY DATA SETS ARE UNAVAILABLE THEN GO TO THIS ON-LINE DATA RETRIEVAL SITE:
http://www.who.int/globalatlas/DataQuery/default.asp
Under "topic" select "HIV/AIDS."  Under "sub-topics" choose "HIV prevalence, estimates."  Go to "Select Items"  and select "HIV Estimates."  Go the "2. Geographical Areas" and select your two countries by holding down the Ctrl key and clicking both countries' names; "Add" countries to the select list.  Under "Choose time period" pick the earliest time period and leave 2007 as the latest time period.   All the data called for on Table 3-1 should then be retrieved -- choose the most recent year's data for this table.  Feel free to use the additional data in your analysis.  In fact, if the "Adult rate" (% of of 15-49 year olds infected with the HIV virus) is high (say, greater than 3%), you might want to click on the "View" link under the "Detail" column for a complete list of all available HIV/AIDS information on that country.  You can simply "select all" and copy and paste this data into your appendix.  Be sure to add a country name label to that table.

Writing Your Commentary:

Spend the least amount of time analyzing trends in the Crude Death Rate.  Quite possibly the Crude Death Rate, since it is so greatly influenced by the age structure of a population, will give you a false impression of mortality conditions in your two countries. It is also an especially problematic "comparative" measure of the force of mortality since oftentimes a young population with worse mortality conditions will have a lower crude death rate than an older population with better mortality conditions  --  check to see if  your less developed country's CDR is currently lower than your more developed country's CDR.  If it is, you can now offer an explanation of why it is  --  your less developed country has a higher proportion of young people who naturally die less frequently than older people.  The Crude Death Rate is a good measure of the rate at which people are being removed from a population due to death, but not a good measure of the force of mortality.

Spend more time analyzing trends in the Infant Mortality Rate.  The Infant Mortality Rate is a very sensitive measure of not only the health conditions of infants but also of the general health conditions of a population.  In many countries it has undergone dramatic changes over the last sixty years.

Spend the most time analyzing trends in life expectancy.  Life expectancy at birth is our best measure of mortality; you can use it to directly compare the mortality levels of your two countries.  It is also easy to understand.  A female life expectancy of 62 years means that the age-sex specific death rates in effect in a particular year imply that a woman experiencing these rates would live to be 62.  It is also our best single comparative measure of mortality.  You can directly compare the life expectancies of your two countries to determine how much higher mortality is in one country than the other.  If the male life expectancy of one country is 50 and that of another country is 75, then the mortality of the second country is really 50% higher than the first.  Analyzing changes in life expectancy over time is an easy way of tracking the general mortality trends of your two countries. Also examine the "Annual Rate of Change, Life Expectancy by Sex" charts for both your countries.  See if there is a clear pattern of change, especially over the last ten to fifteen years.  You will need this analysis when it comes times for you to make population projections.  You will have to guess as what is likely to happen to each country's male and female life expectancies over the course of the next 50 years -- and analysis of the recent past is the best way to make such guesses.

Checklist for doing Section 3 on Mortality:

• Your main task in this section is to analyze the data contained in your charts.    For each country give yourself one brief paragraph for a discussion of CDR trends and comparisons (para # 1).  In your discussion of CDRs see if your less developed country's CDR is currently lower than that of your more developed country's CDR.  If it is, try and explain why.  (Hint:  think age structure.)
• A more extensive analysis of IMR trends and comparisons should be in your second paragraph.  If there is a marked difference in the latest IMR of your two countries, comment on it.
• Your third paragraph should focus on life expectancy trends and comparisons.  In your analysis of life expectancy be sure to note if your less developed country is "catching up" with your more developed country with respect to LE; looking at the "Life Expectancy and Ratio between Life Expectancy Chart" is an easy way of doing that.  Is the "ratio" (left scale of chart) getting closer to 1?  When this ratio is "1" then your less deveoped country has totally "caught up" with your more developed country with respect to life expectancy. Also, examine the "Annual Rate Change in L. Exp. Chart."   See if there is a clear pattern of change, especially over the last ten to fifteen years. Is the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowing down? You will need this analysis when it comes times for you to make population projections.  You will have to guess as what is likely to happen to each country's male and female life expectancies over the course of the next 50 years -- and analysis of the recent past is the best way to make such guesses.
• End with your paragraph on HIV/AIDS.  The most important AIDS data is the "% of the adult population infected with HIV."  Think what it means if that figure is 20%  --  one out of five adults -- is HIV positive.  Assess if either or both countries face a serious AIDS problem.
• Do not focus your attention on population growth in this section.  Your focus should be on analyzing mortality change.
• Try to replace adjectives such as "much better" or "improved a lot" with specific amounts.  For example, tell me what % higher one country's Infant Mortality Rate is than the other -- not simply that one is "a lot" higher.   (Example:  In 1950 Kenya's CDR was 25.3 deaths per 1000 people and Italy's was 9.9.  How much "higher" was Kenya's CDR than Italy's?   Subtract 9.9 from 25.3.  [25.3 - 9.9 = 15.4]   Take the 15.4 and divide it into 9.9  [15.4 / 9.9 = 1.55]. This you can express as "Kenya's CDR was 155% higher than Italy's CDR in 1950.")    If the IMR of one country were double that of another country it would be "100% higher than country B," if it were triple that of another country it would be "200% higher than country B."
• You have 60 years of data to analyze.  Don't just look at 1950 and the year 2010.
• If your more developed country's CDRs remained stable over time while all other measures of mortality improved, see if you can explain that finding.  (Hint:  think age structure --  if the population has gotten "older" the CDR will tend to be high even if life expectancy is improving.)
• The Infant Mortality Rate is a very sensitive measure of not only the health conditions of infants but also of the general health conditions of a population.
• Life expectancy at birth is our best measure of mortality; you can use it to directly compare the mortality levels of your two countries.  Analyzing changes in life expectancy over time is an easy way of tracking the general mortality trends of your two countries.

Section 4: Fertility

Getting the Data:

Information for Table 4-1 can be found in a variety of sources. Look for your countries on the United Nations data on Contraceptive Use 2009 Chart  -- Excel File, PDF Wall Chart.--  it is a useful source of information for Table 4-1 data.  If there is no data for your country(ies) on these tables, then try the CIA Factbook.  For certain countries, all less developed, you can find extensive information about contraceptive use from Demographic and Health Survey's factsheets, which report on demographic surveys taken in many African, Asian, and Latin American countries.  

Writing Your Commentary:

You should spend the least amount of time analyzing and comparing Crude Birth Rates.  They are not our best measure of fertility, although their level does tend to reflect real changes in fertility.

Spend more time analyzing Age Specific Fertility Rate Chart for 2010.  These rates are especially useful in determining both the level and the timing of fertility in each country.  Look at the ASFRs for each country at each age group.  Which country has the higher ASFR?  How much higher is it in one country than the other?  Is the ASFR for 15-19 year olds 4 or 5 times as high?  Now examine the timing of child bearing.   Do women start childbearing at a young age or wait until they are older?  The easiest way to examine timing is to analyze the "% of all fertility" figures and relate how much greater that percentage is for your less developed country's 15-19 year-olds than for your more developed country's 15-19 year olds.  For which age group is the % highest in each of your countries?  In which country do older women contribute a higher % of total fertility?   You can take a brief look at the Age Specific Fertility Rate Chart for 2005 and compare the levels to those in the 2010 chart.  Is fertility declining?  Is it declining across all age groups?

Spend the most time analyzing trends in the Total Fertility Rate.  The TFR  is our best single measure of fertility.  It is also easy to understand because it is presented in units of "children per woman."  A TFR of 3.1 means that all the age specific fertility rates in effect in a particular year imply that a woman experiencing them would have 3.1 children.  Examining its level over time is the easiest way of determining fertility change in a population.  It is also our best single comparative measure of fertility.  You can directly compare the TFRs of your two countries to determine how much higher fertility is in one country than the other.  If the TFR of one country is 2 and that of another country is 4, then the fertility of the second country is really twice as high as the first.  In your analysis of TFR trends be sure to also examine the Annual % Change in TFR chart   See if there is a clear pattern of change, especially over the last ten to fifteen years.  You will need this analysis when it comes times for you to make population projections.  You will have to guess as what is likely to happen to each country TFR over the course of the next 50 years -- and analysis of the recent past is the best way to make such guesses.  Finally, check the level of your countries' Total Fertility Rate.  See if it is below "replacement level" -- that is each woman is not having the 2.1 children needed to "replace" herself and her partner.  The Net Reproduction Rate chart offers an even more sophisticated measure of "replacement."  See how many daughters will survive long enough to have children themselves.  A Net Reproduction Rate of "1" means that each woman is just replacing herself/ -- having exactly one daughter who will survive through her own reproductive years.  If fertility is below replacement -- measured either with the TFR of the NRR -- tell your reader how long this has been going on.

Checklist for doing Section 4 on Fertility:

• Offer some actual analysis of CBR trends.
• Do a detailed analysis of age specific birth rates.  
• Your TFR analysis should look at more than just the last date and the 1950 data.  Tell the reader all that happened to TFR trends over the entire 60 year period.  Tell the reader if the TFR started to sharply decline in each country and when that happened.  Tell me how much higher the rate was in your less developed country than in your more developed country etc.
• Be sure to comment on any very low Total Fertility Rate, especially if it is well below "replacement level."   To replace herself  each woman needs to have 2.1 children.  If each woman is having almost one child less than "replacement," this is extremely low fertility that will lead to population decline if there is not substantial immigration.
• When discussing "replacement," comment on the Net Reproduction Rate chart -- it is the best "replacement" measure.
  
• Examine the "Annual % Change in TFR chart."  See if there is a clear pattern of change, especially over the last ten to fifteen years?  You will need this analysis when it comes times for you to make population projections.  You will have to guess as what is likely to happen to each country TFR over the course of the next 50 years -- and analysis of the recent past is the best way to make such guesses.
• Try not to be too speculative in attributing reasons for the fertility patterns found.   If you know that a war occurred and that fertility shot up after the war -- then by all means note that a post-war baby boom took place.  But don't just guess that "maybe" a fertility increase was due to a war being over.  You can do quite well in this section by simply concentrating your effort on correctly identifying and describing actual fertility trends and the fertility differences between your two countries.
• Comment on the contraceptive prevalence data on your Table 4-1

Section 5:  Migration

Getting the Data:

LEXIS-NEXIS News  --   You need to do a Lexis-Nexis search for newspaper stories dealing with migration in your two countries.   At the initial Lexis-Nexis screen click on Lexis-Nexis Academics".  Use the "Search the News" box type this phrase::  migration w/10 your country-name (for example:  migration w/10 Kenya).   This search will look for all news stories in which the word "migration" appears within ten words of your country's name.  You can change the "10" to a greater number if you get no or few results.   You will then get a listing of newspaper stories dealing with migration in your country in chronological order.   Click on the stories (the most recent are on the top of the list) to get the full text of the actual story and its source. Look first for stories from papers in your countries.  Read some recent stories and choose one; if you found more than one very good stories than include a second as well.  When the story is on the screen you can "highlight" it, copy it, and then paste it at the end of the Word File containing your charts. Place a page in front of each copied storied with the label 'Appendix A" for your first country's story and "Appendix B" for your second country's story, etc. When you refer to a story in your commentary, tell the reader which appendix it can be found in.

Writing Your Commentary:

Checklist for doing Section 5 on Migration:

• Comment on the significance of "International Migrants," "Refugee," and "Migration Stock" charts.  Do international migrants compose a significant portion of each country's entire population?  Is that percentage increasing?  Are refugees a significant component of all migrants?
  
• With respect to the Net Migration Chart -- remember that the  "sign" in front of the number indicates direction of flow (in or out migration), not size of the number.  A -1.5 rate means that for ever 1,000 people in the population in a given year there was a net international outflow of 1.5 emigrants.  A negative net migration rate is not "smaller" than low positive rates or near-zero rates -- it just means that there is a net outflow of people.  A positive net migration rate means that there is a net international inflow of people.
  
• Remember that the net migration estimate derived in your Net Migration Chart is an annual net migrant per 1000 total population measure.  So, if in 1975-80 there really was a net outmigration (say, from the Philippines) of -8, this means that for every thousand residents of the Philippines in that year the population was reduced by 8 people due to net emigration that year.   The -8 net migration rate, therefore, indicates a significant amount of out migration -- not a small amount.  The Annual Net Number of Migrants Chart actually calculates an annual estimated number of net migrants.
• If your Net Migration Chart shows significant net migration flows see if you can relate them to historical events in your country.
• Discuss the content of your news stories – at least with respect to what they imply about public perceptions of migration in your two countries.
• Conclude this section with a paragraph that assesses whether net international migration is a significant component of population change in your two countries. Determining whether net international migration is a significant factor in the population dynamics of a country really is like a solving a jig saw puzzle.  You just have to look at all the pieces and see how they fit

Section 6: Age-Sex Composition

Getting the Data:

The Formulas for calculating dependency ratios are:

• Youth Dependency Ratio =  Population Below Age 15/ Population Aged 15-64
• Aged Dependency Ratio =  Population Aged 65 and over/ Population Aged 15-64
• Total Dependency Ratio =  (Population Below Age 15 + Population Aged 65 and over)/ Population Aged 15-64

The age-sex pyramid spreadsheets generate numerous pyramids for your two countries for points in time from 1950 until 2010.   Choose at least three from each country to include in your analysis section.  I would pick 1950, 2010, and a pyramid from some time period between those dates when something interesting was happening.  Age-sex pyramids offer the most "information" about age-structure, as well as past trends in fertility and, to a lesser degree, mortality and migration.  They need to be "read" with care.  Read carefully the textbook's treatment of how to analyze age-sex pyramids  (Chapter 8).
 

Writing Your Commentary:

End by offering a real analysis of the age-sex pyramids that you included in your commentary section.  If you included the pyramids for 1950, 1980 and 2010, then try to really "read" the age-sex pyramids of each country.   By this I mean focusing on dramatic indentations or extrusions in the pyramid, the general shape of the pyramid, and changes in the shape of pyramid over time.  These you should attempt to explain by relating them to the fertility history of your country and, occasionally, to dramatic mortality events such as wars:

• Can you "see" reflected in these pyramids any  fertility and mortality trends that you have already identified?
• Can you "see" reflected in these pyramids any significant historical events that might have impact your populations.  In the 1950 pyramids can you "see" an impact of WWI, WWII or the Great Depression of the 1930s?  Can you "see" a "baby boom" or a "birth dearth" in the 1980 pyramids?  Can you "see" a recent fertility decline in your 2010 pyramids?
• Scan each pyramid for significant differences in male/female composition as well.

Checklist for doing Section 6 on Age Composition:

• Don't use "%" signs in your dependency ratio analysis – these numbers are simple ratios, they are not %s.  For example, in a population with a youth dependency ratio of .35 there can be a much smaller % of the population under the age of 15 than 35%.  Remember, the denominator used in this ratio is "population aged 16-64", not total population.
• Do a trend analysis of dependency ratios over the entire 60 year time period.  What has been happening to them.
• Analyze both components of your dependency ratios – the youth and the aged.  They each have a story to tell.
• Be careful with "seeing" mortality declines in the age-sex pyramid changes.  Fertility has much more of an impact on the % of the population over 65  than mortality.  A high total fertility rate will produce a very low % of the population over 65 regardless of the level of mortality – and a low total fertility rate will produce a high % over 65.
• High mortality caused by a war -- say that experienced by Russia during WWII -- often shows itself on an age-sex pyramid by there being many fewer males than females in the age groups that would have fought that war.  Males, who most often made up the higherst percent] of the soldier population, were much more likely to be war-time casualties than females.  If there are similar numbers of males and females in a "small" age group than it is much more likely that this "smallness" is a consequence of low fertility than high mortality.
• When you analyze age-sex pyramids please do not focus your attention on discussing the % of the population in the three broad age groups (0-14, 15-64, 65+).   This analysis you have already done in great detail in your dependency ratio analysis and in your treatment of % of the Population Under 15 and Over 65 charts.  What you should focus on are dramatic indentations or extrusions in the pyramid itself, the general shape of the pyramid, and changes in the shape of pyramid over time.  These you should attempt to explain by relating them to the fertility history of your country and, occasionally, to dramatic mortality events such as wars.
• An easy way of "seeing" a country's fertility history in its age-sex pyramid is to actually calculate the "year of birth" of each age group on a pyramid.  For example, In your 1950 age-sex pyramid the age group 0-4 was "born 1946-50" and the age group 5-9 was "born 1941-45," etc.  You can write these "years of birth" right on the graphs.  That way if you see on your 1950 pyramid, for example, that the "age group 30-34" is exceptionally small you will know that this cohort is also the one "born 1915-19."  If you know that your country was a major participant in WWI, now you know that they likely experienced a sharp decline in births during that war -- and this explains the small size of the 30-34 year old cohort in the 1950 pyramid.
• Look at your developed country's three pyramids and, aided by an examination of your Section 4 analysis of fertility trends -- focus on trends in the Total Fertility Rate -- see if its fertility history is reflected in its age-sex pyramids.  Did your country experienced a post-WWII baby boom (i.e.., experienced a real increase in its TFR from 1945 to 1960), can you see it in its 1950, 1980, and year 2010 age pyramids?  If it has experienced a more recent "birth dearth, "can you "see" it reflected in its year 2010 pyramid  – i.e., is there a "tucking in" of the younger cohorts compared with the middle-aged cohorts in this pyramid?
• Look at the year 2010 pyramid for your developing country.  Look at the youngest cohorts.  What do you see?  Are the sides of these cohorts beginning to "flatten"?   Hint:  if fertility were high and constant, then each cohort would be significantly larger than the one before it.  Is this flattening evidence of fertility decline?  Check your section 4 information to confirm if it is.

Section 7:  Preparation for Calculating Population Projections

Getting the Data:

Writing Your Commentary:

Checklist for doing Section 7 on Preparations for Population Projections:

• Since you are actually going to have to offer an explanation for how you arrived at your "guesses," it actually will save you time if go back and examine the data and analysis in your Sections 3, 4, and 5.  You will then have a good reason for your numbers.  Feel free to "copy" and "paste" the relevant Life Expectancy Chart (section 3), Total Fertility Rate Chart (section 4), and Net Number of Migrant Chart (section 5) right into your Word file where you are explaining your guesses.
  
• Focus on what has been happening recently in each country's TFR and LE trends.  If life expectancy (LE) has been increasing over the last 15 years, what has been happening to the rate of increase?  Has that "Annual % Change" been slowing down?  If so, you have a "reason" for your guess that life expectancies will increase, but at a declining rate over the next 45 years.  What has been happening to male/female differences?  Has that "gap" been declining?  If so, you have a "reason" to predict that it will continue to decline in the future.
• If you predict a trend reversal in the future -- the TFR, for example, beginning to rise after 2025 -- you ought to have a "reason" for thinking that a reversal is likely to happen then.  Have such reversals happened in the past?  Etc.
  

Section 8:  Producing Population Projections

• Total population, 5 year, line graph  --  
• Population Growth Rate, 5 year, line graph
• Infant Mortality Rage, 5 year, bar graph
• Net Reproduction Rate, 5 year, bar graph  --  
• Dependency ratio, five year, bar graph  --  
• Age-sex pyramid (percent), first year (2010) & last year (2050)  --
• Age-sex pyramid (number), first year (2010) & last year (2050)  --  
• Median Age, five year, line graph  --  
  

Table:

• Summary Demographic Indicators, five years  -- 

Getting the Data:

In this section you will use a software program, Spectrum, to generate population projections for your two countries.  Fertility, mortality, and migration all affect population change.  Spectrum allows you to manipulate these variables and simulate population changes based on your values.  Spectrum is installed on the computers in CNS 304, but you can also download it and install is on your own computer.  On the web go to http://www.constellafutures.com/ for the latest version, or to SpectrumProgram and follow the instruction for downloading and installing this program.  This is a sophisticated projection program, so be sure to download the manuals.  For your project you will only be using the DemProj program, so the DemProj.PDF file would be the one manual file to download to your machine.

A Quick Start Spectrum Sheet, with the specific instructions needed for your project research, should be read by everyone doing population projections.

Using the Spectrum population projection program, project the total population size for each of your countries fifty years into the future (from 2010 to 2050). 

When you are done inputting the required demographic data, copy and past the requested Table and Graphs for each country.  These are your population projections.

Writing Your Commentary:

• First focus on the population size and population growth rate charts that result from your projections.  You did historical analysis of these variables in Section 2.  What were the historical trends like?  Are you are projecting a 2050 population size figure for your less developed country that is many times its current size?  If so, comment on the implications of such a population size increase.  What is happening to the rate of population growth over time?  Do you think that your country can support such a population without experiencing mortality increases?  Look at the population size projections for your more developed country.  Are you projecting population decline or stagnation?  If so, what are likely consequence of such a shrinkage in size?
• Next examine Mortalilty and Fertility. You did historical analysis of these variables in your Sections 3 and 4.  Examine the Infant Mortality Rate and see what you are projecting to happen to that.  Are you forecasting remarkable improvements in infant survival? Examine the Net Reproduction Rate chart to see the extent to which your population is replacing itself.  Remember, this measure of fertility calculates the number of  surviving daughters per woman.  The NRR replacement level is "1" daughter per woman.   Are each of your populations replacing themselves?  If not, how far below replacement are then falling?
• Next examine the age structure consequences of your population projections.  Your analyzed historical trends in age-sec composition in your Section 6.  What were the historical trends?  Look at your projected dependency ratio charts to determine whether these changes are likely to be beneficial or harmful to the living standards of each population.  Then examine and comment on both kinds of 2050 population pyramids (the "%" and "number" pyramids).  How do you interpret the change in age structure indicated by the 2010 and 2050 pyramids? Then look at the Median Age chart, an easy to interpret single measure of age structure.  Comment on what all these measures of age structure change mean for each population's viability.  Will there be major problems for the economy because the population has become so old? 
  
• Finally scan the Summary Demographic Indicators tables for your country to see if there are any startling changes in numbers of births, numbers of deaths, rates of natural increase (RNI), and doubling times.  Look to see if there are more deaths than birth occurring.  If you have produced a projection that includes estimates of net migration then look to see if the population growth rate (GR) is distinctly different than the rate of natural increase (RNI).  If it is, then you can "see" the impact that net migration is making on population size.  If the GR is higher than the RNI than net in-migration is adding to the population's size.  It the NRI is higher than the GR then net out-migration is subtracting from the population's size.  You can comment on the impact of net migration on each population's situation.  Is your more developed country's population situation being "saved" by net in-migration?  This would be the case if the growth rate (GR) remains above zero when the rate of natural increase (NRI) has fallen well below zero.
  
• In your Section 8 treatment of your more developed country, please end with a paragraph in which you contrast the population projection results of your more developed country with that of your less developed country.

Checklist for doing Section 8 on Population Projections:

• Make sure you correctly "input" the actual TFR, Life Expectancy, and net-migration numbers that you "explained" in your section 7.  Do not just leave the TFR and life expectancy numbers that came with Easyproj -- these numbers are NOT YOUR numbers and they will appear on the Summary Indicators Table.  You many want to check this table to see if your numbers are correctly appearing.  There might be some difficulties inputting your life expectancy "guesses."  We will talk about that in class.
  
• Look to see if NO ONE WAS BORN IN YOUR COUNTRY at any given time period  --  look at your age-sex pyramid.  Are there "missing" cohorts in your 2050 pyramids?  If this has happened to you, then you might have entered an incorrect value that cause no one to be born or survive.  Probably somewhere in that table where you input TFRs and life expectancy figures  a "0" or two appeared.
• This projection method uses a "cohort component" method  -- it uses YOUR TFR, life expectancy, and net migration figures to calculate increases in population size, rates of growth, changes in age structure, etc.  Once you input these "guesses" it shows you what growth rates, population sizes, age structures, etc. are implicit in them.  Therefore, in your commentary DO NOT imply that the "computer" or "the program" came up with the population sizes or age structures...  You did!  The program only did the math for you.
  
• Do not forget to include the Summary Demographic Indicators Table – this will include values for many other variables.  Look at some of the ones that we have already studied.  Do you see real changes in the Crude Birth and Death rates?  What happens to the Rate of Natural Increase?  The Doubling Time?  What happens to the % of the population under 15? Over 65? 
• Note – DO NOT use the projected TFR or Life Expectancy figures for your countries contained  at the UN Site.   These are the numbers used by the United Nations for their projections.  I do not really want you to use the UN figures for your projections – this defeats the purpose of making your own projections.
• Make sure you include the correct Age Pyramid Graphs.  If you forget to hit the "last year" key, you will not have the 2050 pyramid but the year 2010 one printed again.  If you don't have a 2050 age-sex pyramid, you can't analyze it!  If the two pyramids look identical -- check to see if they are actually for different years.
  
• Remember to check the "Table Plus Chart" box when you can -- then the actual numbers will be available for you to use at the bottom of the chart.  You will not have to "guess" the number from reading the chart.  These actual number for the various time periods will also appear on the Summary Indicators Table -- don't forget to use them.
  

 Section 9:  Gender Equality

Getting the Data:

Writing Your Commentary:

Checklist for doing Section 9 on Gender Equity:

• For this analysis it matters a great deal which gender is being discriminated against.  Your analysis should highlight whether the data indicates that males or females are at a disadvantage.
• Don't forget to relate the information being discussed with this section's gender equity topic.  For example, don't just tell me what the sex ratio at birth is  -- also tell me if such a sex ratio indicates gender discrimination.
• Do not make too much of any gender educational differences where the %s are over 100.   School enrollment figures indicate the number of males or females enrolled in a level in the education system per 100 males or females in the appropriate age group. They do not correct for individuals who are older than the level-appropriate age due to late starts, interrupted schooling or grade repetition, so occasionally they go above the 100% ceiling that should be a limit on what is possible.
• Be careful with your phrasing --  do not tell me that "34% of women hold ministerial level postions in the government" when you actually mean to say that "34% of all ministerial level postions in the government are held by women."  These two statements mean very different things.
• Be careful in how you interpret gender employment figures.  There are two basic sets of numbers.  The first set gives you the % of adult males and females who are in the labor force.  In Ireland, for example, 71% of adult males work while only 34% of females.  This set of figures for Ireland actually indicates some significant gender bias – only a third of females are employed.  The second set of figures gives you in which sector of the economy employed males and employed females work.  In this case both female and male sets of % will add to 100.  These figures are not the % of each sector's workers who are male or female workers.  They are also more difficult to interpret with respect to gender bias.  If they indicate, for example, that female workers in Ireland are overwhelmingly in the service sector, not the agricultural sector, this is not a real indication of gender bias.  In fact, service jobs are often considered "better" than agricultural and industrial jobs.

Section 10:  Urbanization

Getting the Data:

Open up the Excel Urbanization Spreadsheet and follow the instructions on this sheet.  It will generate all the urbanization charts that you need for this section.  You should "copy" and "paste" these charts directly into the Word File containing your commentary.

This data, comes from the World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database.   This site contains city specific data.

Writing Your Commentary:

Your task to compare the urbanization experience of your two countries.   Has the population in each country become more concentrated in urban places?   What had been happening to the rural population?  Are people leaving the countryside  --  i.e., is the absolute size of the rural population shrinking?  In 1950 how much more "urban" was your developed country than your less developed country – specifically, how many additional percentage points of their population lived in cities?  By 2005 how much more urban was your developed country?  By 2050 does the UN still  project that your developed will be more urban?  Examine changes in the difference in % urban between your two countries over time.  Have they become more alike over time?   

Analyze the data about what has been happening to the largest cities in each of your countries.  Does either of your countries exhibit a "primate city" urban structure like that described in Weeks?  Have there been major changes in the ranking of particular cities?

Checklist for doing Section 10 on Urbanization

• Be careful about phrasing.
  
• Do not make a "number" blunder in this section.   Do not tell me that 2.3 or 1544 people are living in a major city.  Please keep track of which numbers are in "000s", and which are in millions. 
  
• Examine closely the Urban/Rural Charts for your two countries.  What has been happening to the absolute number of rural residents? Has it declined?  Can you date when your country(ies) became a predominately urban country?
• Can you compare in a more specific way the relative rates of urbanization of your two countries?  In 1950 how much more "urban" was your developed country than your less developed country – specifically, how many additional percentage points of their population lived in cities?  By 2005 how much more urban was your developed country?  Did the difference in % urban between your two countries narrow considerably by 2000?
• Can you offer an interpretation of what has been happening to the total populations residing in each country's largest cities?  Think of the "primate" city model and the "rank-size rule" discussed in Weeks (p. 361).
• Have the city sizes in your less developed country "caught up" with those in your more developed country?  Have they surpassed them?  Are they projected to surpass them?
  

 Section 11:  Population and Development

Open up the Excel spreadsheet Chart Population & GNI and follow the instructions on this sheet.  It will generate Graphs 11-1A and 11-1B that you need for this section.  You should "copy" and "paste" these charts directly into the Word File containing your commentary.

Getting the Data:

Graphs 11-1A and Graph 11-1B plot the Annual Rate of Population Increase and the GNI per capita data on the same graph.  The right side of the graph contains the scale of the %'s for the Annual Rate of Population Increase data.  The left side of the graph contains the scale of the $'s for the GNI per capita data.  

Do a special LEXIS-NEXIS News  search.   At the initial Lexis-Nexis screen click on "Lexis-Nexis Academics".  Use the "Search the News" box and enter this search term: "country-name's economy" (for example:  "Kenya's economy") -- do not forget to include the quote marks (") around this phrase.  You will then get a listing of newspaper stories dealing with your country's economy in chronological order. Any article that relates a population factor to the economy is ideal for this section.  You can even add "population" as a second search term.

If no article can be found in this search, just use the information on economic trends from the State Department Background Notes.  There is both an economy "statistics" section and an "Economy" descriptive section.  The descriptive section will be more useful to you.  Also check out the very short "BBC country profiles" produced by the BBC

For fun you can go to the Gapminder.org site, then click on "Gapminder World" and then change "life expectancy" on the y-axis to "population growth rate" (fnd under birth and deaths).  Click on one of your countries and they you can "play" how the GDP per captia and the population growth rate in that country related to each other from 1960 to the present.  This gives you a moving or dynamic look at the relationship we have graphed.

Writing Your Commentary:

Spend most of your time relating the data on Graph 11-1A, and Graph 11-1B  to the discussion of population growth and development in Chapter 11 of our textbook, Population.    Plotting both population growth data  and economic growth data on the same graph, as you do on  Graph 11-1A, and Graph 11-1B, should  allow you to "see" the relationship between the rate of population growth and a key measure of economic development in each country.   Is a declining rate of population growth associated with a rising per capita GNI?  Is an increasing rate of population growth associated with a declining per capita GNI?  Is no relationship evident?  Relate this analysis to the "debate" among doomsters,  boomsters, and no-connectionists discussed in Chapter 12 of Weeks.  Specifically address the question:  Does the data on each of your graphs support the position of the doomsters,  boomsters, or no-connectionists?

Checklist for doing Section 11 on Population Growth and Economic Development

• Please include the State Department Background Notes "economy" portion for your country, the descriptive article  (Lexis-Nexis News search) of the recent economic condition of your countries, and the short BBC country profile. Copy and paste them into an Appendix at the back of your section.  You should read these reports and summarize an overview of each economy in a paragraph or two.
• Your next task is to "see" the relationship between the rate of population growth and a measure of economic development in each of your countries country  -- this is what you are graphing in Graphs 11-1A&B).
• Remember to address the central  question of this section when analyzing these two graphs:  Does the data on each graph support the position of the doomsters,  boomsters, or no-connectionists?
• When examining Graphs 11-1A and 11-1B   --  do you see a straight forward connection between the two measures you graphed? When one goes "up" does the other go "down"?  If the rate of population growth goes down and the GNI per capita goes up -- that supports the "doomster" position.  If the rate of population growth goes up and the GNI per capita goes down, that, too, supports the "doomster" position.  If both measures go up together or go down together, that supports the "boomster" position.  If there is no clear relationship between the two measures, that supports the "no-connectionist" position.
• Do not switch terms and discuss population size instead of population growth.  Remember, you graphed population growth – there is not a graph of population size.  The question is whether population growth is related to economic development.
• Remember to try and keep using the same measure of economic growth  --  GNI per capita.  Don't use a different measure for the recent time period and don't mix "ppp" and non "ppp" measures.  Sticking with the same source also helps  --  the World Bank tends to have the longest set of GNI per capita data.

Section 12:  Population Policy Recommendations

• You need to use the INTERNET EXPLORER browser for this site:  National Population Policies 2009 (New York:  United Nations, 2010).  The UN has compiled the population policy positions of each country on:  population size, growth; age structure and aging; fertility, family planning, abortion; health, mortality and HIV/AIDS; internal migration and urbanization; international immigration and emigration.  Each country's policy positions on these topics are given for 4 points in time:  1976, 1986, 1996, and 2009.  This one page summary of "government views and policies" is invaluable for your analysis.  Click on the "Country Profiles" link, find you country and look at its "Government views and policies" page.  Right click on your mouse and "select all" then right click and "copy" this entire page and paste it directly into your Word file for this section.  Go to the top and then click on "populationi indicators" tab and repeat this process for the "population indicators" page.. The "population indicators" page will give the actual value of each demographic measure that the government might be finding to be "too high" or "too low" at any time.  Use this in your analysis of the each country's population policies. To help you interpret the brief descriptions of government's policy positions on these issues please look at this Glossary of Government Views and Policies.
  
• See if your two countries made a Government Statement at the last UN Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, 1994.  If these statements are in English you can copy them and include them in an appendix.
  
• Use the population projections that you calculated in your Section 8 -- especially the population size chart, and the % age-sex pyramids for 2010 and 2050.
  

Getting the Data:

• Examining each of your countries' UN population policy sheets.  If you like, you can download the National Population Policies 2009 (New York:  United Nations, 2010) data set to your own computer.  Just follow instructions at this site.
  
• Looking through the government statements made by your countries' representatives at the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994.  You have read about the ICPD conference in our textbook, Population, pages 551-554, and in the Population Challenges and Development Goals; all the commentary about the "Programme of Action" in Population Challenges and Development Goals refers to the plan adopted at this Cairo Conference.  Most, but not all, countries were represented at the conference, but some government statements are not in English.

Writing Your Commentary:

The interesting part of your commentary, however, should be your perception about the need for population policies in your countries.  Present an overall assessment of the demographic challenges facing each of your countries. The most effective way of doing this is to reflect on your projection figures for population size, growth rate and age structure from Section 8.  Do you think that there will be problems associated with your population size and age structure projections? Can each of your countries cope with the numbers of people that you project will be present in 2050? Are the numbers too high for the country's environment and/or economy to sustain? Are the numbers too low to sustain the economy? Then reflect on the age composition projections.  Are your countries' populations too "young" or too "old"?  Will they become too young or too old?  Does your research in any other section of this project -- for example, your examination of the AIDS crisis in your countries  -- indicate a significant population problem?

End this section by suggesting any population policies that you feel the governments of your two countries should implement to deal with the population problems you foresee. Try to suggest feasible population policies.

Checklist for doing Section 12 on Population Policy

• I am looking for two things in this section:
1.  A description of the actual population policies adopted by your countries and any change in policy over time.
2.  Your recommendations about population policies for your two countries.
• Don't simply assert that a policy is needed, document why it is needed.
• Use your population projections (Section 8) to support your policy recommendations.
• If think your less developed  countries will need an antinatalist policy to control its too rapid population growth -- illustrate that need by showing me what its population will be in the year 2050 according to your Section 8 projections.  Showing rapid population growth is a great way of documenting a need for an antinatalist policy.
• If you think your more developed country will need a pronatalist policy  --  illustrate that need by showing me what its population will be in the year 2050 according to your Section 8 projections.  Showing real depopulation is a great way of documenting a need for a pronatalist policy.
• If you think that either or both of your countries will have real age structure problems in the future  --  such as a rapidly aging population  --  document that fact by including the 2050 age/sex pyramid from your Section 8 projections.  Tell me what % of the population is likely to be over the age of 65.
• Things that should be included with this section:
1. One page of policy relevant population statistics about each country from the UN's National Population Policies 2007.
2. Government Statements at Cairo's ICPD Conference, if they exist.
• Don't forget to talk about the items you include!!!
• DO NOT "cut and paste" from previous sections.  I do not want to read another analysis of 50 years of fertility and population growth trends.

Any problems -- drop me a note....